Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...SW FLOW INCRSG AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
FRONT.  ERN NC BASICALLY CLR THIS MORNING BUT CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.  THIS AFTERNOON CLDS WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AS WE DESTABILIZE AWS A RESULT OF SFC HEATING. RUC INDICATES
SCT SHOWERS THIS AFTN BUT MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THIS EVENING
00-03Z ACCORDING TO //NAM.  THE ZFO AS CURRENTLY WRITTEN LOOKS GOOD
ATTM.  I UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH THE STLT IMAGERY. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...FROM EARLIER DSCN...MONDAY
STAYS DRY THEN EXPECT UPPER LOW TO DRIFT MORE TO THE ESE AND UPPER
HIGH TO SLIDE NORTH OF THE RGN. AT THE SFC LOW LVL LIKELY TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY BY TUE AND ALLOW SOME MSTR TO RETURN AND ALSO TO ALLOW
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FOR TUE THROUGH THURS EACH DAY. WILL ONLY
MENTION ISOLATED PCPN EACH OF THOSE DAYS. SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS ACRS AREA THIS AFTN WITH PATCHY HAZE AT NKT,
MRH, AND HSE. MAIN CONCERN IS ONSET, INTENSITY, AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. THE WRF/NAM MODELS WERE WRONG OFF THE BAT WITH COASTAL
MORNING RAINS. THE GFS BRINGS IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN AT 21Z AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RUC 40 WHICH FORECASTS ISOLD ACTIVITY
AROUND 18Z AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY 21Z. INSTAB/CAPE AND
KINEMATICS SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLD WIND GUSTS
TO 50 KT ALONG WITH IFR VSBYS IN THE CORE OF ANY SCT TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS ARE JUST BELOW SCA. ALL THE MODELS INCREASE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING HAD 30 KTS JUST OFF THE
DECK AND THIS STRONGER WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I HAVE BUMPED UP WIND/SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE BEST MIXING POTENTIAL EXISTS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER
OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130-135-150 UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ152-154-156 UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 UNTIL 2 PM SATURDAY.

TK/JE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
426 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-270830-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
426 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-170-270830-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO SURF CITY NC FROM 20 TO
40 NM-
426 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FEET
BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ095-098-103-104-270830-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
426 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL WILL ALSO PRODUCE A
MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES TODAY
FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

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