Tornado Warning 97, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WWUS54 KMEG 221950
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

MSC057-222000-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0097.000000T0000Z-060922T2000Z/
ITAWAMBA MS-
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR ITAWAMBA
COUNTY...

AT 246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIRVIEW...OR
ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RED BAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3428 8853 3412 8842 3426 8820 3447 8814

$$

000 
WWUS54 KMEG 222000
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

MSC057-222010-
/O.EXP.KMEG.TO.W.0097.000000T0000Z-060922T2000Z/
ITAWAMBA MS-
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR ITAWAMBA COUNTY EXPIRES AT 300 PM CDT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE STORM WHICH
PROMPTED THE TORNADO WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3428 8853 3412 8842 3426 8820 3447 8814

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1037 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 786 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNTIL 00Z. AS OF 15Z...THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM JUST
NORTH OF WALNUT RIDGE EASTWARD TO NEAR PARIS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD
MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND NOON AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH AS WELL.

WE SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS SFC
HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDS INSTABILITY. THE MAIN FEATURE
LACKING IS THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL FORCING FEATURE.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A EAST WEST ORIENTED
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. JUST
ABOUT ALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERES FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
TORNADOES. SOME OF THE VALUES INCLUDE...MLCAPES AROUND 2500
J/KG...0-1 KM SRH OF 300 M2/S2...EHI VALUES OVER 3...AND SIG TOR
PARAMETERS OVER 5.

KEEP IN MIND...THAT THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
HEATING. THEREFORE...CONVECTION MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE. THIS COULD ACTUALLY SERVE TO WORSEN THE SITUATION AS
IT WOULD ALLOW ANY SUPERCELLS TO REMAIN DISCRETE...ALLOWING THE
POTENTIAL OF DANGEROUS LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY
IF/WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.

WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REDUCE POPS TO 50 PERCENT AS
MORE OF A SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
OTHER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006)

DISCUSSION...

AN UNSEASONABLY STORMY WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WARM FRONT IS PUSHING INTO
THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE INCREASING AND
DEWPOINTS ARE RISING INTO THE 60S FROM THE SOUTH. A STRONG SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER IA THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST
TO PUSH SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN BY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE SPARKED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...AND THUS FAR STORMS HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS
MORNING.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
HALF. SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE FOR THE MO BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHEAST AR...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR MOST OF WEST TN AND NORTHWEST
MS. A DEEPLY SHEARED...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG...0-1 KM HELICITY 240 TO 280 M2/S2...0-3
KM HELICITY 280 TO 380 M2/S2...0-1 KM EHI 4 TO 5 M2/S2...AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR 40 TO 50 KTS. 500 MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 60
KTS WITH 850 MB WINDS 40 TO 45 KTS. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE NO PROBLEM FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SERVE AS A FORCING MECHANISM BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS MORE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY SHORT WAVES OR OTHER FEATURES FOR
FORCING. THINK IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS FORMING FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SUBTLE SHORT WAVES AND CLOSER TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE TO OUR
WEST. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST. WITH SHEAR BEING DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED...THERE
IS THE THREAT OF TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHEAR BECOMES MORE
UNI-DIRECTIONAL SATURDAY. THINK THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE SQUALL LINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

RAIN WILL END WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR. ANOTHER FRONT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS /
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ATTM...DYNAMICS LOOK MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JFB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
926 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-231630-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
926 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM UNION
CITY TENNESSEE TO SOMERVILLE TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI. THE
CITIES OF MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO ARE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE REMAINDER OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE CITIES OF JACKSON AND
TUPELO ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES TODAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE MID-SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A
TURNING AND STRONG WIND PROFILE WILL EXISTS THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE.

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT
THE MID-SOUTH....ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF...HELPING TO SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
TORNADOES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG AND
LONG-LIVED. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SQUALL
LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. IN
ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY.

JFB