Severe Thunderstorm Warning 441, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION AND ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
MISSOURI. HEAT INDICIES HAVE ALREADY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
MANY PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THINK ANY ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7PM AS
A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL EXPERENCING HEAT INDICIES AROUND 105
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH IN THE ALREADY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY BRINGING
RAINFREE CONDITIONS TO THE MID SOUTH.

.LONG RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
MEANDERING NEAR THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
435 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-111045-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
435 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
INTO PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

JCL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ARZ035-102030-
CROSS AR-
300 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CROSS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER CROSS COUNTY AT 300 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CROSS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
420 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

TNZ004-102145-
HENRY TN-
420 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...HENRY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF COTTAGE GROVE AT 420 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN HENRY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF PARIS...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
434 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

TNZ003-102200-
WEAKLEY TN-
434 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...WEAKLEY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF DRESDEN AT 434 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN WEAKLEY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.