Severe Thunderstorm Warning 439, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION AND ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
MISSOURI. HEAT INDICIES HAVE ALREADY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
MANY PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THINK ANY ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7PM AS
A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL EXPERENCING HEAT INDICIES AROUND 105
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH IN THE ALREADY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY BRINGING
RAINFREE CONDITIONS TO THE MID SOUTH.

.LONG RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
MEANDERING NEAR THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ARZ035-102030-
CROSS AR-
300 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CROSS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER CROSS COUNTY AT 300 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CROSS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.