Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. FLOODING IS THE MAIN
CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IN A BAND HAVE
AFFECTED LOCATIONS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST AR ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST TN OVERNIGHT. RADARS INDICATE A
MAXIMUM OF 12 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE OCCURRED FROM RANDOLPH TO
CLAY COUNTY THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT RECEIVED
ANY GROUND TRUTH RAIN MEASUREMENTS TO VERIFY THIS. HOWEVER...WE ARE
BEGINNING TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF WATER GETTING INTO HOUSES. WITH
MORE HEAVY RAIN FORECAST...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS
OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO NORTHWEST TN THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A VERY GOOD WEST TO EAST THERMAL BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUOUSLY TRAINED ACROSS THIS AREA SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING. IT MAY BE LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THIS BAND
OF RAIN DIMINISHES OR PUSHES NORTH. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE FEEDING
LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINT AIR INTO THIS AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE OVER 2 INCHES.

MEANWHILE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN STILL
EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH INTO TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER OK WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD
THE MID-SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A SQUALL
LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. WITH HIGH WIND SHEAR
AND MLCAPES FORECAST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 J/KG...THE
SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY CONTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE / COLD FRONT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. THE SHEAR DOES BECOME MORE UNI-DIRECTIONAL DURING THE
DAY POSSIBLY REDUCING THE THREAT FROM TORNADOES BY THE TIME THE
SQUALL LINE ARRIVES. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE SQUALL
LINE...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT FRONT AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...ABOUT AS INDICATED IN OUR PRESENT FORECAST / GRIDS.
ATTM...DYNAMICS / MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT APPEAR TO BE MUCH LESS
THAN TODAYS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR. THE GFS
SHOWS THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM AT 850 MB NEAR THE NORTHEAST TIP OF
THE MID-SOUTH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  88  62  75  55 /  70  80  20  10
MKL  87  62  74  51 /  70  80  30  10
JBR  85  59  72  51 /  80  60  20  10
TUP  89  70  77  54 /  50  80  50  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-
     LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

JCL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-241000-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
432 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID-SOUTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL PUSH WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE BY
LATE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS ALL POSE A THREAT TO THE
MID-SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ALSO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXCESSIVE RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FROM PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR AN AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO HUNTINGDON TENNESSEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR COFFEEVILLE
TO IUKA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

JCL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PIGGOTT                 36.38N 90.20W
09/23/2006                   CLAY               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOST OF CLAY COUNTY ARKANSAS DEALING WITH FLOODING. TOWNS
            OF PIGGOTT AND GREENWAY AND POLLARD ESPECIALLY HIT HARD.
            HWY 49 NORTH OF GREENWAY COMPLETELY SUBMERSED. WATER 6
            INCHES DEEP. COUNTY ROADS FLOODED. A NUMBER OF HOMES
            FLOODED.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
347 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PIGGOTT                 36.38N 90.20W
09/23/2006                   CLAY               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOST OF CLAY COUNTY ARKANSAS DEALING WITH FLOODING. TOWNS
            OF PIGGOTT AND GREENWAY AND POLLARD ESPECIALLY HIT HARD.
            HWY 49 NORTH OF GREENWAY COMPLETELY SUBMERSED. WATER 6
            INCHES DEEP. COUNTY ROADS FLOODED. A NUMBER OF HOMES
            FLOODED.

0310 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MAYNARD                 36.42N 90.90W
09/23/2006                   RANDOLPH           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MAJOR FLOODING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTY.
            WATER 1 FOOT DEEP AT INTERSECTION OF HWY 90 AND 251.
            HOMES FLOODING ALONG HWY 115 IN MAYNARD

&&

MRM