Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WUUS54 KMAF 022009 CCA
SVRMAF
TXC371-022100-
/O.COR.KMAF.SV.W.0092.060502T2004Z-060502T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
304 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9
  MILES EAST OF FORT STOCKTON. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED
  16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IMPERIAL. THESE STORM ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
  CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY...
  INTERSTATE 10 EAST OF FORT STOCKTON...

DURING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM... THE BEST PROTECTION CAN BE FOUND IN
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3093 10342 3055 10310 3069 10265 3095 10234
      3119 10254 3125 10269 3124 10283 3131 10298

$$

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 022027
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

TXC371-022100-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-060502T2100Z/
PECOS TX-
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN PECOS COUNTY...

AT 319 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL 
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WAS LOCATED 15 
MILES EAST OF FORT STOCKTON. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 
12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IMPERIAL. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 
15 MPH. 

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE... 
RURAL CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY...
INTERSTATE 10 EAST OF FORT STOCKTON...
STATE HIGHWAY 11...
U.S. HIGHWAY 385...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3093 10342 3055 10310 3069 10265 3095 10234
      3119 10254 3125 10269 3124 10283 3131 10298

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
214 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS...DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. THESE STORMS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING DUE TO VERY LARGE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOPOGRAPHY. AT THE SAME TIME...CUMULUS
BUBBLING JUST EAST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS ALSO ARE
BEGINNING TO BACK ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS
NEAR SWEETWATER AND SNYDER INDICATING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASING. WITH INSTABILITY ALREADY PRESENT AND CAP DECREASING
PER SPC ANALYSIS WILL MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES THIS EVENING
GIVEN CURRENT SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...
WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION.  BY 03/1200Z...LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MID-LATE WEEK WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW...BUT PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT.  SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
SUPPLY AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AND THUS...DECIDED TO
LEAVE POP CHANCES IN PLACE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.  MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND APPROACHING FRONT...WITH PROPAGATION EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE GREATEST THETA-E RIDGING.  THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS
MAF CWA WILL BE DEPENDENT ON RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE
IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WORK WEEK AS A LLJ
INTENSIFIES EACH EVENING. NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THIS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE GFS AND HPC
AGREE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FA BY 05/1200Z. THE NAM
KEEPS THE FRONT FARTHER NORTHEAST AND AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION AS PER NAM INITIALIZATION THIS MORNING. WHILE A WIND
SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...THERE WILL NOT BE AN
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLEST
DAY /TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY -- 81
DEGREES FOR KMAF/. WARM UP IS EXPECTED BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OFF THE
CA COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE AMPLIFIED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              66  91  65  91 /  30  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                58  94  59  92 /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  93  67  95 /  20  20  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  97  64  95 /  20  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  88  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  94  60  90 /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   50  87  52  86 /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  92  65  92 /  20  20  30  10
ODESSA TX                  66  94  67  92 /  20  10  30  10
WINK TX                    66 100  62 102 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-031000-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
255 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006 /155 PM MDT TUE MAY 2 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT 3 PM ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
244 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

TXZ075-022045-
PECOS-
244 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR PECOS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 18...20 MILES NORTH
OF FORT STOCKTON. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING ALONG AND NEAR
INTERSTATE 10...INCLUDING FORT STOCKTON.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.