Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
214 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS...DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. THESE STORMS SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING DUE TO VERY LARGE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOPOGRAPHY. AT THE SAME TIME...CUMULUS
BUBBLING JUST EAST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS ALSO ARE
BEGINNING TO BACK ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS
NEAR SWEETWATER AND SNYDER INDICATING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASING. WITH INSTABILITY ALREADY PRESENT AND CAP DECREASING
PER SPC ANALYSIS WILL MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES THIS EVENING
GIVEN CURRENT SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...
WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION.  BY 03/1200Z...LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MID-LATE WEEK WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW...BUT PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT.  SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
SUPPLY AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AND THUS...DECIDED TO
LEAVE POP CHANCES IN PLACE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.  MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND APPROACHING FRONT...WITH PROPAGATION EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE GREATEST THETA-E RIDGING.  THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS
MAF CWA WILL BE DEPENDENT ON RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE
IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WORK WEEK AS A LLJ
INTENSIFIES EACH EVENING. NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THIS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE GFS AND HPC
AGREE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FA BY 05/1200Z. THE NAM
KEEPS THE FRONT FARTHER NORTHEAST AND AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION AS PER NAM INITIALIZATION THIS MORNING. WHILE A WIND
SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...THERE WILL NOT BE AN
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLEST
DAY /TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY -- 81
DEGREES FOR KMAF/. WARM UP IS EXPECTED BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OFF THE
CA COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE AMPLIFIED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              66  91  65  91 /  30  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                58  94  59  92 /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  93  67  95 /  20  20  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  97  64  95 /  20  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  88  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  94  60  90 /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   50  87  52  86 /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  92  65  92 /  20  20  30  10
ODESSA TX                  66  94  67  92 /  20  10  30  10
WINK TX                    66 100  62 102 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
437 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-032145-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
437 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006 /337 PM MDT TUE MAY 2 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN...STOCKTON
PLATEAU...AND LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
PREVALENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN...STOCKTON PLATEAU...
AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
439 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

TXZ061-062-022245-
ECTOR-MIDLAND-
439 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTHERN ECTOR AND SOUTHERN
MIDLAND COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PLEASANT FARMS AT 439 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING UP TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA TO SMALL MARBLE SIZE
HAIL.  U.S. 385 SOUTH OF ODESSA IS CURRENTLY IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.  THE CITY OF ODESSA IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.  DO NOT
WAIT FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING TO TAKE COVER.  IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WEST TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
449 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT FARMS          31.68N 102.34W
05/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       ECTOR              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TV METEOROLOGIST TOOK REPORT OF PEA TO QUARTER-SIZED HAIL
            IN PLEASANT FARMS.

&&

MUELLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
513 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             WESTBROOK               32.36N 101.01W
05/02/2006  E4.25 INCH       MITCHELL           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RADIO STATION REPORTED BASEBALL AND SOFTBALL SIZED HAIL
            NORTH AND SOUTH OF WESTBROOK AND ALSO IN THE CUTHBERT
            AREA.

0510 PM     TORNADO          5 E WESTBROOK           32.36N 100.93W
05/02/2006                   MITCHELL           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST
            EAST OF WESTBROOK

&&

MUELLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             9 NW BIGBY CORNER       31.80N 101.76W
05/02/2006  E1.25 INCH       GLASSCOCK          TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST
            MIDLAND COUNTY NEAR HIWAYS 1379/1357

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W WESTBROOK           32.36N 101.08W
05/02/2006                   MITCHELL           TX   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TELEPHONE POLES DOWN BY WINDS.

&&

MUELLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TORNADO          1 W COLORADO CITY       32.40N 100.88W
05/02/2006                   MITCHELL           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 1 MILE WEST OF COLORADO CITY NEAR
            THE WEST INTERCHANGE.

0527 PM     TORNADO          5 S COLORADO CITY       32.33N 100.86W
05/02/2006                   MITCHELL           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR THE POWERPLANT ROUGHLY 5
            MILES SOUTH OF COLORADO CITY.

&&

MUELLER

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