Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.  ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THEY ARE EJECTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...A DRY LINE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE WESTERN CWA.  THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA.  WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5 TO 8.5 DEG C/KM RANGE AND BULK
SHEAR VECTORS FROM 60 TO 75 KTS BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC MENTIONED THAT
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP IN THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY FORM ALONG
THE DRY LINE AND MOVE ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. WILL NOT MENTION THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE ZONES BUT WILL MAKE MENTION OF IT IN THE HWO.

WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WILL APPROACH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WILL PRECLUDE VERY STRONG WINDS...THEREFORE
WILL KEEP WIND FORECASTS JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS...MAINLY INCREASING
THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND MOVING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE WIND AND DEW POINT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...
STILL HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM INTO SUNDAY.  POTENT UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST... ABUNDANT MOISTURE... DRYLINE AND
A LINGERING WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.  HAVE
CONCENTRATED ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOST OF AREA REMAINS IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY RAIN CHANCES GONE AND SHIFT
CONCERN TO FIRE WX AS STRONG WEST WIND SWEEPS ACROSS AREA.

WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DIVIDING THE AREA HAS MADE TEMP FORECAST
TRICKY... YESTERDAY MAF HIGH WAS 62... FST WAS 80.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR/FAST TO LIFT THIS FRONT.  ETA AND AVN MOVE
THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY NORTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY SO WILL RAISE
TEMPS FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA.

SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT RISK FOR CWA INTO SUNDAY AS CONCERN ABOUT
SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND A SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.  ETA PUTTING DRYLINE ALONG A HOBBS TO ALPINE
LINE BUT THIS MAY BE INFLUENCED BY RAIN THAT OCCURS SATURDAY.  DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE EXTENDING ISOLATED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CWA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FROM LEA TO BREWSTER COUNTIES AND
EASTWARD.  BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING DUE TO TIMING OF SPEED MAX AND AFTERNOON HEATING.  ABUNDANT
CLOUDS LIMITED CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SPC EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT
THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAIN SUNDAY... HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE WITH WET
FORECAST.

UPPER TROUGH HITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AND SWEEPING THE MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST
ENDING RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY.  COULD SEE A HIGH WIND EVENT AT GDP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.  EXPECT IT TO BE DRY AND WINDY ON
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.  COULD ALSO SEE
WIND ADVISORY BEING NEEDED MONDAY FOR THE PLAINS.  UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH REST OF FORECAST WITH NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES SEEN.  HAVE GONE WITH GFS NUMBER FOR
EXTENDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECTED HIGH WIND AND LOW RH WILL CREATE CONCERN ABOUT RAPID FIRE
GROWTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              64  54  72  47 /  60  50  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                70  50  71  41 /  30  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  58  81  50 /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  57  80  48 /  50  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  48  69  36 /  30  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   69  50  70  40 /  30  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   72  49  70  35 /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  55  73  46 /  60  50  40  20
ODESSA TX                  66  55  75  46 /  60  50  40  20
WINK TX                    74  55  82  46 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

54/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-191100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
450 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 /350 AM MST SAT MAR 18 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE THUNDESTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE GREATEST THREATS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MAY RESULT
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD MONDAY...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICAN PLAINS AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN OF
WEST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN YOUR AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND