Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 181121
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

TXC371-181129-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-060318T1130Z/
PECOS TX-
519 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PECOS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 519 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXITED
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS 
CANCELLED. 

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3082 10291 3049 10274 3074 10183 3108 10230

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.  ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THEY ARE EJECTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...A DRY LINE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE WESTERN CWA.  THESE
INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA.  WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5 TO 8.5 DEG C/KM RANGE AND BULK
SHEAR VECTORS FROM 60 TO 75 KTS BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC MENTIONED THAT
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP IN THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY FORM ALONG
THE DRY LINE AND MOVE ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. WILL NOT MENTION THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE ZONES BUT WILL MAKE MENTION OF IT IN THE HWO.

WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WILL APPROACH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WILL PRECLUDE VERY STRONG WINDS...THEREFORE
WILL KEEP WIND FORECASTS JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS...MAINLY INCREASING
THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND MOVING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE WIND AND DEW POINT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...
STILL HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM INTO SUNDAY.  POTENT UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST... ABUNDANT MOISTURE... DRYLINE AND
A LINGERING WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.  HAVE
CONCENTRATED ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOST OF AREA REMAINS IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY RAIN CHANCES GONE AND SHIFT
CONCERN TO FIRE WX AS STRONG WEST WIND SWEEPS ACROSS AREA.

WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DIVIDING THE AREA HAS MADE TEMP FORECAST
TRICKY... YESTERDAY MAF HIGH WAS 62... FST WAS 80.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR/FAST TO LIFT THIS FRONT.  ETA AND AVN MOVE
THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY NORTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY SO WILL RAISE
TEMPS FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA.

SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT RISK FOR CWA INTO SUNDAY AS CONCERN ABOUT
SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND A SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.  ETA PUTTING DRYLINE ALONG A HOBBS TO ALPINE
LINE BUT THIS MAY BE INFLUENCED BY RAIN THAT OCCURS SATURDAY.  DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE EXTENDING ISOLATED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CWA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FROM LEA TO BREWSTER COUNTIES AND
EASTWARD.  BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING DUE TO TIMING OF SPEED MAX AND AFTERNOON HEATING.  ABUNDANT
CLOUDS LIMITED CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SPC EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT
THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAIN SUNDAY... HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE WITH WET
FORECAST.

UPPER TROUGH HITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AND SWEEPING THE MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST
ENDING RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY.  COULD SEE A HIGH WIND EVENT AT GDP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.  EXPECT IT TO BE DRY AND WINDY ON
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.  COULD ALSO SEE
WIND ADVISORY BEING NEEDED MONDAY FOR THE PLAINS.  UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH REST OF FORECAST WITH NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES SEEN.  HAVE GONE WITH GFS NUMBER FOR
EXTENDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECTED HIGH WIND AND LOW RH WILL CREATE CONCERN ABOUT RAPID FIRE
GROWTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              64  54  72  47 /  60  50  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                70  50  71  41 /  30  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  58  81  50 /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  57  80  48 /  50  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  48  69  36 /  30  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   69  50  70  40 /  30  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   72  49  70  35 /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  55  73  46 /  60  50  40  20
ODESSA TX                  66  55  75  46 /  60  50  40  20
WINK TX                    74  55  82  46 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

54/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
331 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
331 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2006 /231 PM MST FRI MAR 17 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG
TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER... DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...BIG BEND...AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...THE PERMIAN
BASIN...AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BOTH
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  THIS ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD MONDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICAN PLAINS AND THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN YOUR AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SOUTH OF
AN ALPINE TO BIG LAKE TEXAS LINE TONIGHT...AND ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND