Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2006, 3:48 PM MDT for Lea County, New Mexico. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 12, 2006, 3:48 PM MDT (21:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 12, 2006, 4:33 PM MDT
- In force
- 45 min
- Issued by
- NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Lea County, NM
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 650 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -375 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1530 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS54 KMAF 122149 SVRMAF NMC025-122245- /O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0201.060712T2148Z-060712T2245Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 348 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... * UNTIL 445 PM MDT * AT 345 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF CROSSROADS...OR 28 MILES NORTH OF TATUM...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... CROSSROADS... TATUM... GLADIOLA... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER... VERY HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220. LAT...LON 3356 10305 3356 10343 3323 10337 3322 10305 $$ 13
2 follow-up statements
000 WWUS54 KMAF 122214 SVSMAF SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 513 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 NMC025-122245- /O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-060712T2245Z/ LEA NM- 413 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2006 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT FOR NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY... AT 411 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL... AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES EAST OF CROSSROADS...OR ABOUT 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF TATUM... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE... STATE HIGHWAYS 508 AND 125 IN RURAL NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY AT 430 PM MDT. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220. LAT...LON 3356 10305 3356 10343 3323 10337 3322 10305 $$ 13
000 WWUS54 KMAF 122233 SVSMAF SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 533 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 NMC025-122243- /O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-060712T2245Z/ LEA NM- 433 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2006 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY IS CANCELLED... AT 433 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220. LAT...LON 3356 10305 3356 10343 3323 10337 3322 10305 $$ 13
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 3:30 PM MDT, 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 3:30 PM MDT, 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 430 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 .UPDATE... THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THEN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 C/KM...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL...AND CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING AS SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY...AND STORM MOTION IS SLOW. THE 12/18Z WRF APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 231 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006) SHORT TERM... STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER AZ/NM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 60S FOR NORTHERN LEA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FORT DAVIS/MARFA REGION. EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY GIVING LOW POPS... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN... AND MARFA PLATEAU DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IN POPS WEST AND INCREASED POPS NORTH TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS. DID EXPERIENCE SOME FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT IN EDDY COUNTY AND AS OF 18Z ALREADY STARTING TO GET A FEW ECHOS NEAR QUEEN. GIVEN 12Z MAF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.3 INCHES SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME HEAVY RAINERS. WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERN IN HWO. LONG TERM... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE GULF COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST... WITH A GENERAL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME. THIS WILL FORCE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE GULF WESTWARD...SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND THROUGH OLD MEXICO. POPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HINGE ON DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN REGION OF WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE. WENT WITH 20 POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED TO MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED POPS IN OTHER AREAS HINGED ON PLACEMENT OF DISTURBANCES WITHIN REGION OF 700-500 MILLIBAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 70 PERCENT OR GREATER ON THE GFS40 MODEL...WHICH AGREED REASONABLY WELL THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE NAM80 MODEL. BEYOND SATURDAY DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE IN CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DID NOT SEE STRONG ENOUGH SIGNALS YET TO ADD WEATHER GRID WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF DISTURBANCES AND MOISTURE IN QUESTION. TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && 13/67
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 3:31 PM MDT, 17 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 431 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-132145- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND- GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 431 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 /331 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2006/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING OVER 100 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE FLOODING DUE TO SWOLLEN DRAWS AND ARROYOS AS WELL AS SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES. PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE CAUTION WHEN ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
The office that day
Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 6:57 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | MAF | Eddy | 3 hr |
| Jul 12, 3:04 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | MAF | Lea | 3 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New Mexico, 2006Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.