Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 122313
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

NMC025-130000-
LEA-
507 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY...

AT 505 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.  
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSOTRMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY 
RAINFALL WERE REDEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED NEAR LOVINGTON AND CAPROCK...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 
10 MPH. LOCATIONS BETWEEN TATUM AND BRONCO...AND JUST NORTHEAST OF
TATUM THAT ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL 
HEAVY RAINS.    

LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY THESE HEAVY RAINS INCLUDE...
TATUM...
GLADIOLA...
BRONCO...
MCDONALD...
LOVINGTON...
RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3313 10356 3285 10336 3293 10306 3355 10307
      3353 10342

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER AZ/NM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.  LOWS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH 60S FOR NORTHERN LEA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FORT
DAVIS/MARFA REGION.

EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY GIVING LOW POPS... MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP PRECIP OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN... AND MARFA PLATEAU DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IN POPS WEST AND INCREASED POPS
NORTH TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.  DID EXPERIENCE SOME FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT IN EDDY COUNTY AND AS OF 18Z ALREADY
STARTING TO GET A FEW ECHOS NEAR QUEEN.  GIVEN 12Z MAF PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.3 INCHES SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BECOME HEAVY RAINERS.  WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERN IN HWO.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE GULF COAST WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
WITH A GENERAL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME. THIS WILL
FORCE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE GULF WESTWARD...SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND
THROUGH OLD MEXICO. POPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HINGE ON
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN REGION OF WEAKNESS IN
THE HIGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE. WENT WITH 20
POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED TO MAINLY WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS IN OTHER AREAS HINGED ON PLACEMENT OF DISTURBANCES
WITHIN REGION OF 700-500 MILLIBAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 70
PERCENT OR GREATER ON THE GFS40 MODEL...WHICH AGREED REASONABLY WELL
THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE NAM80 MODEL. BEYOND SATURDAY DID NOT
MAKE MUCH CHANGE IN CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DID NOT SEE STRONG
ENOUGH SIGNALS YET TO ADD WEATHER GRID WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF DISTURBANCES AND MOISTURE IN QUESTION. TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              75 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                73 106  74 103 /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  74 100  77  99 /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 102  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72 101  74  98 /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   69 105  72 103 /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   63  94  62  91 /  10  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74 103  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  75 103  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79 111  79 108 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

72/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
243 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 /143 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING OVER 100 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE FLOODING DUE TO SWOLLEN DRAWS AND ARROYOS AS WELL AS
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES OVER 100
DEGREES. PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE CAUTION WHEN ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND