Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
804 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
RECALIBRATION OF THINKING...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HIGH BASED WALL
CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TO INTENSE LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION
EAST SOUTHEAST OF SEMINOLE. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THIS SUPERCELL...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH VERY HIGH SUBCLOUD HELICITY HAS RESULTED
IN CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS.
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE LOWERED ON THE COOL SIDE...
AND BEST GUESS PUTS LCL AT 4500 AGL...STORM HAS STARTED TO TURN
TO THE RIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL VOLUME SCANS AND PERIODIC
OCCLUSION/REGENERATION OF THE PARENT MESOCYCLONE HAS BEEN NOTED.
EXPECT THE SAME OVER THE NEXT ONE HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY SHOWS UP
VERY WELL ON RADAR ALONG A EUNICE...WEST ODESSA...STILES ARC.
LOOKS LIKE ITS SLOWED ITS TRANSLATIONAL MOTION SLIGHTLY. MAY SEE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A FEW HOURS ONCE THE LLJ KICKS IN.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

70/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-052015-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
303 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006 /203 PM MDT THU MAY 4 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME
OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS... AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A LOVINGTON... FORT STOCKTON... TO
SANDERSON LINE.  EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
643 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

TXZ063-050045-
GLASSCOCK-
643 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EASTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF GARDEN CITY AT 643
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA TO
NICKEL HAIL ONE MILE SOUTH OF GARDEN CITY...HOWEVER THE STORM
APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME.

PRIMARY THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM INCLUDE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.
MOTORISTS ON STATE HIGHWAY 158 EAST OF GARDEN CITY SHOULD BE ALERT
AND SLOW DOWN IF THREATENING WEATHER IS ENCOUNTERED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR WEST TEXAS.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
755 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             8 NW SEMINOLE           32.80N 102.75W
05/04/2006  E2.00 INCH       GAINES             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0738 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     SEMINOLE                32.72N 102.65W
05/04/2006                   GAINES             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUNTY ROAD 209/US 62-180 -- ROTATING WALL LOUD AND
            FUNNEL CLOUD.

0744 PM     HAIL             SEMINOLE                32.72N 102.65W
05/04/2006  E1.75 INCH       GAINES             TX   AIRPLANE PILOT

            IN THE TOWN OF SEMINOLE.

0747 PM     HAIL             2 E SEMINOLE            32.72N 102.62W
05/04/2006  E1.50 INCH       GAINES             TX   AIRPLANE PILOT

            ON US 62/180

&&

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
757 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             8 NW SEMINOLE           32.80N 102.75W
05/04/2006  E2.00 INCH       GAINES             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0738 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     SEMINOLE                32.72N 102.65W
05/04/2006                   GAINES             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUNTY ROAD 209/US 62-180 -- ROTATING WALL LOUD AND
            FUNNEL CLOUD.

0744 PM     HAIL             SEMINOLE                32.72N 102.65W
05/04/2006  E1.75 INCH       GAINES             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            IN THE TOWN OF SEMINOLE.

0747 PM     HAIL             2 E SEMINOLE            32.72N 102.62W
05/04/2006  E1.50 INCH       GAINES             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON US 62/180

&&

02

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
909 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

TXZ047-048-050315-
SCURRY-BORDEN-
909 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHEASTERN BORDEN COUNTY...
AND NORTHWESTERN SCURRY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLUVANNA...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.  THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR WEST TEXAS.

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