Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
654 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN HOBBS AND SEMINOLE TO NEAR
ODESSA AND FROM THERE EAST TO BELOW GARDEN CITY. 05/00 UTC
SOUNDING FROM KMAF SHOWS NO INHIBITION WITH CONSIDERABLE POSITIVE
AREA TO 400 MB. LFC IS AROUND 700 MB HOWEVER...AND WHILE THERES
AMPLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WEAK FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN 800 AND 650 MB.
LATEST MESOANALYSES FROM SPC SHOWS MUCAPES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE AND MARGINAL SR MIDLEVEL FLOW. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AS AN UPPER JET TRANSVERSES
NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SINCE WE EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN THE LLJ AFTER DARK...WE SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE
WARM SECTOR...HIGH BASES AND DRY SUBCLOUD CONDITIONS OUTFLOW-
DOMINANT STORMS ARE LIKELY...AND THE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR
STORMS TRENDING TOWARD THE HP END OF THE SPECTRUM. OBVIOUSLY WILL
HAVE TO CONSIDER AN UPTICK IN TORNADOGENIC POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
CROSSING BOUNDARIES...BUT ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE MEAN
SR FLOW AND FAIRLY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF
TORNADOGENESIS. THUS THE SIGNIFICANT THREATS APPEAR TO BE WIND AND
HAIL OVER THE NEXT ONE TO THREE HOURS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-052015-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
303 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006 /203 PM MDT THU MAY 4 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME
OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS... AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A LOVINGTON... FORT STOCKTON... TO
SANDERSON LINE.  EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
643 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

TXZ063-050045-
GLASSCOCK-
643 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EASTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF GARDEN CITY AT 643
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  A SPOTTER REPORTED PEA TO
NICKEL HAIL ONE MILE SOUTH OF GARDEN CITY...HOWEVER THE STORM
APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME.

PRIMARY THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM INCLUDE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.
MOTORISTS ON STATE HIGHWAY 158 EAST OF GARDEN CITY SHOULD BE ALERT
AND SLOW DOWN IF THREATENING WEATHER IS ENCOUNTERED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR WEST TEXAS.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.