Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Warnings in 2006
Tornado Warning 9, NWS Little Rock, AR
NWS Little Rock, AR issued this tornado warning at Mar 11, 2006, 10:17 PM CST for Newton County, Arkansas. It was in force for 58 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 11, 2006, 10:17 PM CST (04:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 11, 2006, 11:15 PM CST
- In force
- 58 min
- Issued by
- NWS Little Rock, AR
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Newton County, AR
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 6:49 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 318 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1322 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -28 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1405 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 60 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 144 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 4.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WFUS54 KLZK 120418
TORLZK
ARC101-120515-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0009.060312T0417Z-060312T0515Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1017 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
* UNTIL 1115 PM CST
* AT 1014 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 30 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JASPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FALLSVILLE AROUND 1020 PM CST
MOUNT JUDEA AROUND 1045 PM CST
&&
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
400 AM CST SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN ARKANSAS.
LAT...LON 3592 9294 3590 9295 3583 9295 3574 9316
3574 9345 3575 9347 3575 9351 3581 9351
3587 9349 3603 9330 3612 9311 3610 9294
$$
461 follow-up statement
000
WWUS54 KLZK 120457
SVSLZK
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1056 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
ARC101-120515-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-060312T0515Z/
NEWTON AR-
1056 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1115 PM CST FOR NEWTON COUNTY...
AT 1056 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
TORNADO NEAR DEER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MOUNT JUDEA.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO
NEED TO FIND A PLACE OF SAFETY NOW GO INDOORS TO THE LOWEST
FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS. PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOURSELF AND
THE OUTDOORS AS YOU CAN.
&&
LAT...LON 3592 9294 3590 9295 3583 9295 3574 9316
3576 9342 3577 9344 3579 9343 3583 9341
3589 9335 3602 9315 3607 9305 3608 9293
$$
46What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Mar 11, 2:55 PM CST, 7 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 11, 2:55 PM CST, 7 hours 22 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 255 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... IN THE NEAR TERM... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRYLINE FROM JUST EAST OF TULSA TO NEAR ARMORE OKLAHOMA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SLOW MOVING FEATURE...SUPPORTED BY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS. 18Z LITTLE ROCK AND OTHER REGIONAL UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVEN WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING...AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RELATIVELY HIGH LCL VALUES...ALONG WITH MODEST 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED...EXPECT FOR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. EXPECT THE GREATEST OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THAT OF TODAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A PRONOUNCED SEVERE THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CLEAR TO FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ENDED ALL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA WRT THE COLD FRONT AT THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AGAIN... GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS GFS/CMC ENSEMBLES. GRAPHICAL MEX OUTPUT SHOWS GOOD CHANCES FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS /GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CWA-WIDE/. WITH WEAK RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD...LOWERED CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY...SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING BEHIND. AS MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS.. .HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW WENT WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE THERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTERACT WITH /LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND HIGH/. ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL TEMPORARILY BE LOWER FRIDAY ...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW...ESPECIALLY A WEEK OUT... AND THE FACT THAT SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE...UPPED POPS A LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANYTHING THAT COMES WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE RAIN. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD LOOKED REASONABLE...WITH LITTLE CHANGES MADE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... LITTLE ROCK AR 64 80 60 69 / 40 50 70 30 HARRISON AR 60 77 51 60 / 80 60 70 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 64 81 60 68 / 40 50 70 30 PINE BLUFF AR 64 82 62 69 / 30 40 70 40 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 77 54 61 / 80 60 70 20 MONTICELLO AR 65 83 63 70 / 20 40 60 40 SEARCY AR 63 79 60 69 / 50 50 70 30 MOUNT IDA AR 63 80 58 68 / 40 50 70 20 RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 79 59 67 / 50 60 70 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...220
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 11, 12:08 PM CST, 10 hours 9 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1208 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121100- ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND- CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE- PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE- WOODRUFF-YELL- 1208 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE WELL ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARKANSAS IS UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE MAJOR CONCERNS. PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER RULES... AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FOR ANY WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS. USE OF NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR TELEVISIONS WITH ALERT FEATURES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME IN HANDY DURING THIS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK 55
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 11, 9:58 PM CST, 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
958 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0954 PM HAIL QUEEN WILHEMINA STATE P 34.69N 94.37W
03/11/2006 E1.75 INCH POLK AR PARK/FOREST SRVC
&&
22Local storm report, Mar 11, 10:16 PM CST, 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1016 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1010 PM HAIL OMAHA 36.46N 93.19W
03/11/2006 E1.00 INCH BOONE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
22The office that day
Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 7:36 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Boone | 24 min |
| Mar 11, 9:31 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Polk | 44 min |
| Mar 11, 9:45 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Scott | 60 min |
| Mar 11, 9:48 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Boone | 27 min |
| Mar 11, 9:54 PM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Johnson | 36 min |
| Mar 11, 10:14 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Boone | 46 min |
| Mar 11, 10:26 PM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Boone | 34 min |
| Mar 11, 10:29 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Logan | 46 min |
| Mar 11, 10:34 PM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Marion | 39 min |
| Mar 11, 10:45 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Logan, Scott, Yell | 45 min |
| Mar 11, 10:49 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Johnson | 56 min |
| Mar 11, 11:09 PM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Searcy | 51 min |
| Mar 11, 11:33 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Newton | 27 min |
| Mar 11, 11:46 PM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Baxter, Marion | 59 min |
| Mar 12, 12:20 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Fulton, Izard | 55 min |
| Mar 12, 4:41 AM CST | Lake Wind Advisory | LZK | Arkansas, Baxter, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne and 28 more | 19 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Warnings in Arkansas, 2006Every tornado warning in 2006Tornadoes in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.