Tornado Warning 8, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

IN THE NEAR TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRYLINE FROM JUST EAST OF TULSA
TO NEAR ARMORE OKLAHOMA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SLOW MOVING FEATURE...SUPPORTED BY MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS.

18Z LITTLE ROCK AND OTHER REGIONAL UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVEN WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING...AS
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. RELATIVELY HIGH LCL VALUES...ALONG WITH MODEST 0-1KM SHEAR
VALUES SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT WOULD BE
LIMITED...EXPECT FOR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. EXPECT THE GREATEST
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY. FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN
THAT OF TODAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A PRONOUNCED
SEVERE THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CLEAR TO FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH AND OUT
OF THE CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ENDED ALL PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA WRT THE COLD FRONT AT THAT TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AGAIN...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS GFS/CMC
ENSEMBLES. GRAPHICAL MEX OUTPUT SHOWS GOOD CHANCES FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS /GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CWA-WIDE/. WITH WEAK RIDGE
MOVING OVERHEAD...LOWERED CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY...SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.

WEAK RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING
BEHIND. AS MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS..
.HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW WENT
WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE THERE THERE WILL BE
MORE MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTERACT WITH /LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN BEHIND HIGH/.

ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL TEMPORARILY BE
LOWER FRIDAY ...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW...ESPECIALLY A WEEK OUT...
AND THE FACT THAT SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE...UPPED POPS A
LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANYTHING THAT COMES WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
PRODUCE RAIN. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD LOOKED REASONABLE...WITH LITTLE CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  64  80  60  69 /  40  50  70  30
HARRISON AR       60  77  51  60 /  80  60  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  81  60  68 /  40  50  70  30
PINE BLUFF AR     64  82  62  69 /  30  40  70  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  77  54  61 /  80  60  70  20
MONTICELLO AR     65  83  63  70 /  20  40  60  40
SEARCY AR         63  79  60  69 /  50  50  70  30
MOUNT IDA AR      63  80  58  68 /  40  50  70  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  79  59  67 /  50  60  70  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...220

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1208 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1208 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ACROSS TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST.  A DRYLINE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.

FORECAST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE WELL
ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ARKANSAS IS UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE MAJOR CONCERNS.

PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER RULES...
AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FOR ANY WATCHES AND OR
WARNINGS. USE OF NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR TELEVISIONS WITH ALERT
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME IN HANDY DURING THIS SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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