Severe Thunderstorm Warning 366, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD
ARKANSAS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS BLO 2K FT AND
VISIBILITIES OF 2-4SM ARE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006/

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAINLY POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR
ON SATURDAY.

AT THIS POINT...APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY THIN OUT OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE STATE AFTER DAWN SATURDAY BEFORE STORMS REDEVELOP FARTHER
SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SEVERE WEATHER NORTH OF LITTLE
ROCK OVERNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED GIVEN THAT THEY
WILL BE POST FRONTAL. GIVEN THIS...LOOKING FOR LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...RAPID COOLING ALOFT DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING
COUPLED WITH HOT/DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE USUALLY LEADS TO WIND
DAMAGE...SO THIS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006/

AVIATION...
WL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MAINLY HIGHER LVL CLOUDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME
PTCHY HZ/BR REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR LVLS BEFORE 14Z. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF DAY. CDFNT WL BE APCHG NRN AR ARND
00Z. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WL INCRS AT KHRO AND KBPK...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDS EXPECTED IN CONVECTION. RAINFALL WL AFFECT CNTRL AR STARTING
ARND 06Z AND INTO PARTS OF SERN AR TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PD.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE FURNACE IS AT FULL FIRE FOR ONE MORE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 100-105
ELSEWHERE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE...WELL...LAST WEEK...HEAT
INDICES WILL TOP 105 IN MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THUS...LEFT THE HEAT
ADVISORY IN PLACE. WENT CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FRONT CURRENTLY HUNG UP IN THE PLAINS WILL GAIN MOMENTUM LATER
TODAY...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL...AS
MOISTURE RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. GOOD LAPSE
RATES...ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
OF ELEVATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS. GREATEST THREAT WOULD BE WIND
AND HAIL. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE BIGGER THREAT/MORE COVERAGE WILL
BE IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON SATURDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUNDS KIND OF FUNNY USING THIS WORD WHEN YOU/RE TALKING ABOUT 90
DEGREE WEATHER...BUT...***COOLER*** TEMPS WILL BE NOTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY WEEK...AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SFC HIGH PRES WL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE START OF THE PD. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION. SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE
RETURN WL BE NOTED AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROF FM THE NW BY WED.
SINCE THE RH LVLS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HAVE INDCD SLGT CHC
POPS FOR MAINLY THE SERN HALF OF THE FA THRU MIDWEEK. ANOTHER FNTL
BNDRY IS PROGGED TO APCH NRN AR JUST BEYOND THE PD. GFS CONTS TO
SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN REGARDS TO QPF...SO WL STICK WITH
LOW POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ023-ARZ030-
ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-
ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-
ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-
ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S TO OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE
STATE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE 105 OR HIGHER IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WAS IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT
WILL HEAD INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH
OF LITTLE ROCK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY THIN OUT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE...AND ON SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46