Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
319 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS
ISSUED PREVIOUSLY. MIXING OF THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE BEEN ERODING
THE CAP ABOVE THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDAY SOUNDING SHOWED A SMALL
CAP LEFT...AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE TONIGHTS ONSLAUGHT.
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP PUSHING DRYLINE
CLOSER TO THE STATE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP TO DRYLINE AND CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 12Z MONDAY. POPS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY...AND THEY WILL DROP TO
CHANCE LATE TONIGHT AND FOR EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PUNCTUATE THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH ARKANSAS BY 00Z TUESDAY...WITH CAA
TAKING OVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH CENTER OVER LIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGESTING
FAIRLY COOL H85 TEMPS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE STATE...SO ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE FOR TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

GFS ENSEMBLES...AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUPPORT INCREASING THE POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW HAVE PUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS /IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/ AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS /BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE/. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS SYSTEM ZIPS OUT OF AREA
BY THURSDAY MORNING. KEPT THUNDER ISOLATED TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

GFS/CMC ENSEMBLES POINTING TOWARDS A RATHER EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH
COMING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS ISN/T AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE SFC HIGH. IN FACT...IT IS AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES WILDLY DIVERGE. SOME MEMBERS DEVELOP A ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE SOME DEVELOP A RATHER DEEP H5 LOW OFF THE
WEST U.S. COAST. FEEL THERE WAS ENOUGH MEMBERS SIGNALING PRECIP FOR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TO WARRANT THE POPS...WHICH AGREES WELL
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT MADE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  70  38  61 /  70  30   0   0
HARRISON AR       48  61  32  57 /  70  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  69  37  62 /  70  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     62  70  40  62 /  60  30   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  62  33  57 /  70  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  71  42  63 /  60  40   0   0
SEARCY AR         59  70  36  60 /  70  30   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      59  69  37  61 /  60  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  68  34  60 /  70  20   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-
ARZ005-ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-
ARZ022-ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-
ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-
ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-
ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...32 / LONG TERM...220

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
445 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
445 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A DRYLINE REMAINED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS TO ITS EAST...WITH VERY DRY AIR TO ITS
WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE DRYLINE WAS SLIGHTLY CAPPED DUE TO A
WARM LAYER OF AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE CAP WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING.

TOWARD THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE...AND WILL TRACK INTO ARKANSAS. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS...OR
STORMS WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WILL BE NOTED. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. THE
SUPERCELLS WILL MOSTLY AFFECT WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND WILL NOT REACH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL CATCH UP
TO THE DRY LINE...AND STORMS MAY FORM INTO A LINE FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL NOT REACH
THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER RULES...
AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FOR ANY WARNINGS...
WATCHES...AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. USE OF
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR TELEVISIONS WITH ALERT FEATURES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL COME IN HANDY DURING THIS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER COMING TO AN END. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LIKELY.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
204 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 AM     HAIL             4 N WALDRON             34.96N 94.09W
03/13/2006  M0.75 INCH       SCOTT              AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

58

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