Tornado Warning 3, NWS Baltimore/Washington

000 
WWUS51 KLWX 112217
SVSLWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
616 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

VAC177-112230-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060511T2230Z/
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-
616 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR
SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...

AT 611 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SNELL... IN 
SOUTHEASTERN SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. 

THIS IS THE SECOND OF TWO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARNING 
REMAINS UP AS OF 6:15 FOR NORTHERN SPOTSYLVANIA AND STAFFORD COUNTIES 
FOR THE OTHER STORM.

LAT...LON 3811 7768 3806 7761 3815 7746 3826 7751

$$
STRONG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
415 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

.SHORT TERM /UPDATED FOR REST OF TONIGHT/...

TORNADO WATCH #342 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 02Z. WILL UPDATE ZONES
AND SUCH ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 230 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006/

SHORT TERM /TNGT-FRI/...

THIN LN OF PCPN ENTERING ERN W.V....BUT OVR THE MTNS MID ATLC RMNS
IN HVY CLD CVR WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE ANY QUICK RISES IN CAPE. IAD VWP
IS SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF HELICITY...BUT ID LIKE TO SEE MORE OF THE
EQUATION COME TOGETHER IF SVR TSTMS ARE TO DVLP. STILL...SLT RISK
OUTLOOK RMNS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE STMT
ISSUED AT MID MRNG.

AFTR THIS FNT MOVES TO THE CST ARND MDNGT THINK SKIES WL XPRNC CLRG
OVRNGT...AND PTCHY FOG IN THE MRNG. NOT ENOUGH TO MTN IN THE
ZNS...ALTHO DO HV IT COVERED IN TAFS. I KEPT THE MRNG HRS FRI POP
FREE...AND THEN REINTRODUCED THEM FOR THE AFTN...W/ LOW PRES
STACKING UP NW OF THE CWA THINK SELF DESTRUCT SUNSHINE W/ AFTN RW
A PSBLTY.

50S E OF MTNS TNGT...45-50 W. L70S E ON FRI..65-70 W.

IN CHES BAY/PTMC WATER LVLS RMN ABV NRML AS WE APPROACH FULL MOON.
CSTL FLD STMT ISSUED PRVSLY - TUE MRNG HIGH TIDE WL BE A HIGH HIGH
TIDE AND COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLDG ANNAPOLIS/ALEXANDRIA.

WOODY

&&

.LONG TERM /FRI NGT THROUGH THU/...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEARLY EVERY PERIOD.
LOWEST CHANCES ARE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OUT OF THE REGION AND THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...GIVING
LIKELY POPS. WITH THE LOWS STACKED...SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME MOVING NORTH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

VSBY REDUCTIONS IN RW/TRW INTO EVE HRS...THEN AGAIN IN PRE-DAWN HRS
IN FG.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA IN EFFECT THRU 10 PM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM UPDATE...ALLEN
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...WOODY
AVIATION/MARINE...WOODY
LONG TERM...ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
423 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-
025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ048>055-121145-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
423 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 PM FOR SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WATCH AREA. SEE WBCWCNLWX FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2
INCHES EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

SEA