Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AT 18Z...KLWX WSR-88D SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS WERE FEEDING OFF
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY THAT WAS ABLE TO BE GENERATED FROM BREAKS IN
THE MORNING CLOUD COVER. 12Z KIAD RAOB SHOWED 2K J/KG OF CAPE WITH
AN LI ABOUT -6 C. WHILE WEAK...SHEAR LOOKED A LITTLE BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WAS ABOUT THE
SAME AS 12Z YESTERDAY (BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS OFF THE 00Z
SOUNDING LAST NIGHT).

BELIEVE THAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...OUR CWA WILL CONTEND WITH A COUPLE
OF DIFFERENT WEATHER THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PULSEY IN
NATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHEST/STRONGEST CORES WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL. THIS
THREAT WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS SO HIGH AND STORM MOVEMENT
RELATIVELY SLOW...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT WILL
GO BEYOND THE EVENING AND LAST INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST IN SW PA AND SE OH VERY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...AND IN FACT IT MAY GET HUNG UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BEFORE SATURDAY ENDS. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH PORTRAY AN AXIS OF HIGHEST PW/THETA-E CLOSE TO THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. DURING THE MORNING UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE DISTRICT AND PLACES NORTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN RADAR TRENDS WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING IN A HIGH
PW ENVIRONMENT...HAVE DECIDED TO GEOGRAPHICALLY EXPAND THE FFA SOUTH AND
WEST TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE FFA WILL LAST UNTIL 10Z.

WITH THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY SATURDAY MORE
PESSIMISTIC THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. PWS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
EAST DURING THE MORNING...AND CHANCE WEST. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE
THUNDER TRY TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON IF CLOUDS CAN TRY TO BREAK. SO
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AT BEGN OF PD...12Z MODELS SHOWS ESTABLISHMENT OF A H5 CUT LOW OVER
MID ATLC REGN THAT MAINTAINS THRU TUE NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING
JUST OFF ATLC COAST ON TUE NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING SLGHT CHC/CHC
PCPN THRU FIRST PART OF THE PD SUN NIGHT/MON. NW FLO AT SFC TAKES
PLACE ON WED AND THU WHICH WL INHBT PCPN. TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...APPEARS IF AIR MASS CHANGE WL TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE
THU/FRI PD...WITH H85 CAA IN PLACE BEGNG FRI 00Z. WL INTRO 30 POPS
TRW WITH FRONT THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...

HELD ON TO PREVAILING VFR UNTIL 21 OR 22Z...WHEN MORE NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT AREA TERMINALS. PREVAILED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA THEREAFTER THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN FOCUSED MORE OF SHRA FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SAT AFTN BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...

NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA FLAGS THROUGH TONIGHT...YET WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
WITHIN SMALLER SCALE THUNDERSTORMS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP THE
ALREADY EXISTING SCA FOR SATURDAY. MODELS NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
WINDS...BUT IF FRONT/LOW PRESSURE CAN PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
THEN WINDS COULD KICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DCZ001 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014 UNTIL 6 AM
     SATURDAY.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ021-025>031-042-053-054 UNTIL 6 AM
     SATURDAY.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ048>055 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM
     SATURDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...LEE

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