Severe Thunderstorm Warning 533, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 102309
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
507 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

MOC221-102317-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0533.000000T0000Z-061110T2330Z/
WASHINGTON MO-
507 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
WASHINGTON COUNTY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  ADDITIONAL 
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST.

LAT...LON 3794 9065 3776 9065 3778 9035 3789 9047
      3805 9039

$$

MOC187-102330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0533.000000T0000Z-061110T2330Z/
ST. FRANCOIS MO-
507 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST
FOR NORTHERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY...

AT 506 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR DESLOGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
FARMINGTON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3794 9065 3776 9065 3778 9035 3789 9047
      3805 9039

$$

BRITT

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 102327
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
527 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

MOC187-102337-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0533.000000T0000Z-061110T2330Z/
ST. FRANCOIS MO-
527 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 530 PM CST...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST.

LAT...LON 3794 9065 3776 9065 3778 9035 3789 9047
      3805 9039

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
254 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 20Z...THE
FRONT EXTENDED FROM SFC LOW JUST NW OF STL TO JUST WEST OF VICHY TO
JUST E OF SGF THEN INTO NWRN AR. HAVE SOME ISOLATED RWS/TRWS
DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY IS POST FRONTAL.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS NWRN HALF OF CWA IN
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 02Z...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL...AND HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR SRN 7 COUNTIES TIL
04Z. AXIS OF INSTABILITY TO SHIFT TO THE SE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA FOR THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE THEM RAPIDLY
DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S NW TO
MID 30S SE BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING
PCPN CHANGING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF CWA...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

BY SATURDAY...SFC LOW WILL BE OVER WRN NY WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
OVER WRN IL. WILL STILL HAVE CLOUDS LINGERING OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF CWA IN THE MORNING...BUT SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH BRISK NW TO N WINDS PULLING IN
PLENTY OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.

SFC RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WHILE HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOW 50S N TO UPPER 50S S.

SEE SAW WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM TO BEGIN AFFECTING CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT
REST OF EXTENDED TO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. WARM AND HUMID AIR IS SURGING UP AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ALREADY DOT THE AREA AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR CONDITIONS DIPPING INTO IFR/LIFR
RANGE ALONG AND IN A NARROW BAND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR 1-3 HOURS BEHIND AFTER FROPA...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR AFTER THAT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KTS OR SO SHOULD ALSO
BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARNEY
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1104 AM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
1104 AM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS.  SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
QUINCY TO JEFFERSON CITY LINE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IS ALSO POSSIBLE THOUGH
LESS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND BE READY FOR IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION
IF SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

BYRD