Severe Thunderstorm Warning 492, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CNVTN HAS REFIRED THIS AFTN OVR SE SECTIONS OF FA...WHERE AMPLE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN SUNSHINE ALLOWED MUCAPES TO PUSH TO ARND 4000
J/KG. BEST COVERAGE FOR THE NXT FEW HRS IS AND WL RMN ALG
PREFRONTAL TROF/WND SHIFT OVR SE THIRD OF FA...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE FURTHER W IN THE VCNTY OF THE TRUE CDFNT...WHICH IS NR
A K3LF-KAIZ LN AT 20Z. PCPN WL WIND DOWN ACR FA ERY THIS EVE AS
SFC TROF AND CDFNT PUSH INTO OHIO VALLEY AND SFC RDG USHERS
COOLER...LESS HUMID...AND MORE STBL AMS INTO MID MSVLY.

FOR THE RMNDR OF THE SHORT TERM...AREA WL RMN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING SFC RDG THAT WL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM GTLKS INTO NE
U.S. THE PRIMARY SWD PENETRATION OF THE COLD AIR ASSOC WITH THE
RDG WL BE INTO THE GTLKS EWD...SO TEMPS SHUD RMN AT OR JUST A BIT ABV
NORMAL DURG PD. OVR THE PAST FEW WEEKS MOS GUID HAS BEEN A BIT TOO
COOL WITH THE DAYTIME HI FCSTS SO HV TWEEKED MAX TEMPS MORE IN LN
WITH THE NAM 2M TEMPS...WHICH ARE GENLY 1-3 DEGREES ABV MAV MOS.
EXCEPTION TO THIS THINKING MAY BE TO MINS OVR SE AREAS...WHERE
FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WL EXIST BOTH TUE AND WED
NGTS.

IN THE EXTENDED...UPR RDG IS STILL FCST TO BUILD BACK INTO S
PLAINS AND LWR AND MID MSVLY VLY...BUT PSTN OF RDG IS SUCH THAT FA
WL BE ON S FRINGES OF WESTERLIES. WITH MDT UNSTBL AMS BNTH
RDG...AND DYNAMICS THAT DO BRUSH AREA WL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
CNVTN. FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WEVE HAD VRY LO POPS IN N
AREAS...BUT HAVE UPPED THOSE A BIT FOR FRI NGT AND SAT TO ACCT FOR
A BIT MORE ENERGY. IN ADDITION...MDLS ARE NOW ALLOWING WK FNT/TROF
TO SETTLE ACR THE FA HEADING INTO ERY NXT WEEK...SO HV CLIMO-TYPE
POPS TO ACCT FOR THIS.

TRUETT
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CDFNT HAS VIRTUALLY CLEARED THE ENTIRE FA NOW
PUSHING THE MAIN THUNDER THREAT SE WITH IT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER TROF
IS SLIDING SE BEHIND THE CDFNT...AND THIS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA
WITH WEAK CINH AND MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH LO LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAKENING VORT MAX TO CREATE THREAT FOR SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PCPN THREAT TO THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE THRU THE FA TODAY...BUT
THE SUN WILL TAKE ITS TOLL...WEARING IT DOWN TO WHERE NOT MUCH MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SRN FA...AND KSTL/KSUS TERMINALS SHOULD LARGELY AVOID
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS BELOW 3KFT. ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT BY 01/02Z AND TO REMAIN CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED...AND MO RIVER TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S...SHOULD SEE HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR RIVER/STEAM FOG
LATE TONIGHT...NOTABLY FOR THE KSUS TERMINAL. SYNOPTIC WINDS
AREN/T PERFECT...BUT NOT BAD EITHER...AND HAVE PLACED IN IFR BCFG
INTO THE TAF FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR NW-N SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED UNDER A MODEST
CU FIELD ON TUESDAY.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-
047>052-059>065-072-073-151100-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-COLE-
CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-
KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-
MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-
ST CHARLES-ST CLAIR IL-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-WARREN-WASHINGTON-
355 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ069-070-074-079-MOZ074-075-084-085-099-151100-
CLINTON IL-IRON-MADISON-MARION IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST FRANCOIS-
STE GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON IL-
355 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.  THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BY SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGE TO REPORT ANY STRONG WINDS OR HAIL THAT OCCURS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TES/TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
444 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 NW POTOSI            38.05N 90.93W
08/14/2006                   WASHINGTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN

&&

BMILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
503 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E FREDERICKTOWN       37.56N 90.26W
08/14/2006                   MADISON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN PARTIALLY BLOCKING STREETS.

&&

TILLY