Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 453, NWS St. Louis, MO

July 21, 2006Montgomery County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 21, 2006, 9:10 AM CDT for Montgomery County, Missouri. It was in force for 50 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 21, 2006, 9:10 AM CDT (14:10 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2006, 10:00 AM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Montgomery County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 21, 9:20 AM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Wellsville, MO	A FEW LARGE TREES AND SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN THE AREA.
Jul 21, 9:20 AM CDT	HAIL 0.88	Wellsville, MO
Jul 21, 9:30 AM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Wellsville, MO	TREE DOWN ON THE 600 BLOCK OF NE 2ND STREET
Jul 21, 9:35 AM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Montgomery City, MO	POWER LINES DOWN IN TOWN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 10 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 281 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 801 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -126 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 646 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 37 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KLSX 211410
SVRLSX
MOC139-211500-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0453.060721T1410Z-060721T1500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
910 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 906 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.  THESE STORMS
  WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  WELLSVILLE TO 15 MILES WEST OF WELLSVILLE TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  MINEOLA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
  MEXICO TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF FULTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MINEOLA...
  WELLSVILLE...
  MONTGOMERY CITY...
  NEW FLORENCE...
  BUELL...
  BIG SPRING...
  BELLFLOWER...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3915 9163 3904 9164 3871 9166 3871 9143
      3896 9125 3913 9125

$$

CVKING

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 211426
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
926 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

MOC139-211500-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0453.000000T0000Z-060721T1500Z/
MONTGOMERY MO-
926 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

AT 925 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF MINEOLA TO WELLSVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY CITY TO WELLSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 
30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...
MONTGOMERY CITY...DANVILLE...AMERICUS...MIDDLETOWN...NEW FLORENCE...
BUELL...BIG SPRING...HIGH HILL AND BELLFLOWER.

LAT...LON 3915 9163 3904 9164 3871 9166 3871 9143
      3896 9125 3913 9125

$$

CVKING

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 211503
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1003 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

MOC139-211513-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0453.000000T0000Z-060721T1500Z/
MONTGOMERY MO-
1003 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY EXPIRES AT
1000 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM.

LAT...LON 3915 9163 3904 9164 3871 9166 3871 9143
      3896 9125 3913 9125

$$

CVKING

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 21, 6:18 AM CDT, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 6:18 AM CDT, 2 hours 52 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
618 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT EXTDS FM WK SFC LOW JUST SW OF STL W TO ANOTHER WK SFC LOW OVR
CNTRL KS ATTM. WRN PTN OF MCS OVR SRN PTNS OF IL AND IN JUST
CLIPPING THE ERN PTN OF THE CWA. THIS MCS IS JUST AHD OF WK SFC WV
ALNG FNT AND ALSO IN AREA OF RELATIVELY STG 850 MB WAA...THETA E
ADVCTN AND MOISTURE CNVG BASED ON LATEST RUC ANLYS. ANOTHER MCS
OVR MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND NWRN KS. THIS MCS WAS JUST N-NW OF SFC
LOW OVR CNTRL KS AND LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF A 30 KT SLY LLJ. SOME
OF THIS PCPN ALNG WITH CLOUD CVR MAY MAKE IT INTO THE NWRN PTN OF
THE CWA BY EARLY TO MID MRNG...ALTHOUGH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF PCPN
SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG AS POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPR
LVL TROF MOVES E-SEWD THRU THE AREA...WITH A WK SFC WV DVLPG ALNG
CDFNT AS IT MOVES SEWD THRU THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA. GFS MDL APRS
A LTL TOO DEEP WITH THIS SFC WV DUE TO FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WHICH
BGN AT 00Z SAT. PREFER WKR SOLUTION OF NAM MDL. BEST PCPN THREAT
SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME THRU THE CWA TGT AS CDFNT CONTS
TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD...WITH PCPN POTENTIAL ENDING BY 12Z SAT AS
MID-UPR LVL TROF PUSHES SE OF THE CWA AND ALSO AS SFC RDG OVR THE
PLAINS BLDS SEWD INTO THE CWA. MDLS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM DEPICTS
SOME LGT QPF OVR PARTS OF THE AREA ON SAT AND SAT NGT MAINLY DUE
TO WK NW FLOW SHRTWVS AND ASSOCIATED WK SFC TROFFINESS BUT PLAN TO
LEAVE FCST DRY FOR NOW. LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE APRS TO BE QUITE
LIMITED AFT 12Z SAT. WILL GO BLW PERSISTANCE ON MAX TEMPS
TDA...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH FM STL S AND
E DUE TO SFC DWPTS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S NR FNT. SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER OVR THE NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE CWA TGT DUE TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLRG...SFC DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S...AND 850 MB
TEMPS FALLING TO ARND 13-15 DGRS C.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER KCOU...KSUS AND KSTL AS LOW STRATUS
ADVECTS WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THESE CONDS THRU
14Z...THEN LARGE AREA OF RWS AND TRWS TO THE NW SLIDES INTO THE
REGION. THUS SPED UP TIMING OF TEMPO GROUPS FOR PCPN FOR ALL TAF
SITES AND HAD IT PERSIST LONGER...ESPECIALLY FOR KSUS AND KSTL. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS BEYOND TODAY...SO LEFT TAF SITES DRY AFTER
THE EVENING HOURS TODAY.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 8:36 AM CDT, 34 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
836 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

ILZ058>060-095>099-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-050>052-
221200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-
836 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL
MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ILZ064-065-069-070-074-079-100>102-MOZ047>049-059>065-072>075-084-
085-099-221200-
BOND IL-CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
IRON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE IL-
OSAGE-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-
WASHINGTON IL-
836 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN THE
HUMID AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

TILLY

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 21, 8:51 AM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
851 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     HAIL             4 N COLUMBIA            38.51N 90.23W
07/21/2006  M0.88 INCH       ST. CLAIR          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL RANGED FROM 1/2 TO 7/8 INCH DIAMETER. EST WIND SPEED
            OF 55 TO 60 MPH

&&

RPRZYBYLINSKI

Local storm report, Jul 21, 8:59 AM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
859 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 AM     HAIL             HALLSVILLE              39.12N 92.22W
07/21/2006  E0.75 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND EST WIND OF 50 TO 55 MPH IN
            HALLSVILLE.

&&

RPRZYBYLINSKI

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 21, 8:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Boone	40 min
Jul 21, 8:39 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain	58 min
Jul 21, 8:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Callaway	44 min
Jul 21, 9:32 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Warren	58 min
Jul 21, 10:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Charles	60 min
Jul 21, 10:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	63 min
Jul 21, 11:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford	25 min
Jul 21, 12:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Saint Francois, Washington	56 min
Jul 21, 12:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve	31 min
Jul 21, 12:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Madison	28 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.