Severe Thunderstorm Warning 451, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 211343
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
843 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

MOC007-211500-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0451.000000T0000Z-060721T1500Z/
AUDRAIN MO-
843 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
FOR AUDRAIN COUNTY...

AT 841 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 
MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF THOMPSON...OR ABOUT 8 
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTRALIA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
THOMPSON...MEXICO...VANDIVER...BENTON CITY...RUSH HILL AND LADDONIA.

LAT...LON 3932 9213 3905 9213 3916 9141 3933 9144
      3932 9172

$$

CVKING

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 211437
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
938 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

MOC007-211448-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0451.000000T0000Z-060721T1500Z/
AUDRAIN MO-
938 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR AUDRAIN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM.

LAT...LON 3932 9213 3905 9213 3916 9141 3933 9144
      3932 9172

$$

CVKING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
618 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT EXTDS FM WK SFC LOW JUST SW OF STL W TO ANOTHER WK SFC LOW OVR
CNTRL KS ATTM. WRN PTN OF MCS OVR SRN PTNS OF IL AND IN JUST
CLIPPING THE ERN PTN OF THE CWA. THIS MCS IS JUST AHD OF WK SFC WV
ALNG FNT AND ALSO IN AREA OF RELATIVELY STG 850 MB WAA...THETA E
ADVCTN AND MOISTURE CNVG BASED ON LATEST RUC ANLYS. ANOTHER MCS
OVR MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND NWRN KS. THIS MCS WAS JUST N-NW OF SFC
LOW OVR CNTRL KS AND LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF A 30 KT SLY LLJ. SOME
OF THIS PCPN ALNG WITH CLOUD CVR MAY MAKE IT INTO THE NWRN PTN OF
THE CWA BY EARLY TO MID MRNG...ALTHOUGH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF PCPN
SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG AS POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPR
LVL TROF MOVES E-SEWD THRU THE AREA...WITH A WK SFC WV DVLPG ALNG
CDFNT AS IT MOVES SEWD THRU THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA. GFS MDL APRS
A LTL TOO DEEP WITH THIS SFC WV DUE TO FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WHICH
BGN AT 00Z SAT. PREFER WKR SOLUTION OF NAM MDL. BEST PCPN THREAT
SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME THRU THE CWA TGT AS CDFNT CONTS
TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD...WITH PCPN POTENTIAL ENDING BY 12Z SAT AS
MID-UPR LVL TROF PUSHES SE OF THE CWA AND ALSO AS SFC RDG OVR THE
PLAINS BLDS SEWD INTO THE CWA. MDLS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM DEPICTS
SOME LGT QPF OVR PARTS OF THE AREA ON SAT AND SAT NGT MAINLY DUE
TO WK NW FLOW SHRTWVS AND ASSOCIATED WK SFC TROFFINESS BUT PLAN TO
LEAVE FCST DRY FOR NOW. LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE APRS TO BE QUITE
LIMITED AFT 12Z SAT. WILL GO BLW PERSISTANCE ON MAX TEMPS
TDA...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH FM STL S AND
E DUE TO SFC DWPTS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S NR FNT. SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER OVR THE NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE CWA TGT DUE TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLRG...SFC DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S...AND 850 MB
TEMPS FALLING TO ARND 13-15 DGRS C.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER KCOU...KSUS AND KSTL AS LOW STRATUS
ADVECTS WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THESE CONDS THRU
14Z...THEN LARGE AREA OF RWS AND TRWS TO THE NW SLIDES INTO THE
REGION. THUS SPED UP TIMING OF TEMPO GROUPS FOR PCPN FOR ALL TAF
SITES AND HAD IT PERSIST LONGER...ESPECIALLY FOR KSUS AND KSTL. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS BEYOND TODAY...SO LEFT TAF SITES DRY AFTER
THE EVENING HOURS TODAY.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
836 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

ILZ058>060-095>099-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-050>052-
221200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-
836 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL
MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ILZ064-065-069-070-074-079-100>102-MOZ047>049-059>065-072>075-084-
085-099-221200-
BOND IL-CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
IRON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE IL-
OSAGE-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-
WASHINGTON IL-
836 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN THE
HUMID AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

TILLY