Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 020220
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
920 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

ILC119-163-020245-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0242.000000T0000Z-060502T0245Z/
ST. CLAIR IL-MADISON IL-
920 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES...

AT 917 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH OVER MARYVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
TROY...KUHN...FRUIT...ST. JACOB...MARINE AND KAUFMAN.

LAT...LON 3885 9011 3854 9021 3851 8973 3893 8968

$$

GLASS

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 020249
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
946 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

ILC119-163-020256-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0242.000000T0000Z-060502T0245Z/
ST. CLAIR IL-MADISON IL-
946 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTHERN
ST. CLAIR COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.  AT 946 PM...RADAR SHOWED A STRONG 
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALHAMBRA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  THIS STORM IS 
STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES 
EAST ACROSS EASTERN MADISON COUNTY INTO WESTERN BOND COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3885 9011 3854 9021 3851 8973 3893 8968

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
523 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT UNDER UPPER
CLOSED LOW. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THEN SETTLE INTO NORTH AR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER NORTHERN IA LAST EVENING WILL OPEN UP
AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN DIGGING A SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CLOSE
OFF AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SHOULD SET OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY BY THE NAM, GFS AND UKMET WITH LOW KS. LOOKS
LIKE THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH IF THE MODELS ARE ON
TARGET. A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE REGION. THE
UKMETS QPF FORECASTS A 2 INCH BULLSEYE OVER KC METRO AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST WEVE EVER SEEN. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH H3 JET OF 80-100 KTS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. JET IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND
UKMET FORECAST SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL MO AT THAT TIME
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LGT SHRA MOVG INTO UIN AND COU AREAS AHD OF
SHRTWV TROF EXTDG FM NWRN MO SW THRU SERN KS. WK SFC TROF ALSO
EXTDS FM BTWN COU AND STL SW THRU NERN OK. PLENTY OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FM STL SWD AHD OF THIS SFC TROF. SHOULD
BE SOME SHRA IN UIN AND COU THIS EVNG WITH TSRA IN THE STL AREA.
PLENTY OF MID LVL CLOUD CVR AHD OF THE SHRTWV TROF WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS ABV 3000FT. MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN UIN AND COU
WITHIN SHRA ACTIVITY...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IN TSRA IN STL AND SUS. THIS PCPN SHOULD PUSH SE OF
THE STL AREA BY 06Z TUE FOLLOWED BY A CLRG SKY AND SFC WNDS BCMG
W-NWLY BHND SFC TROF.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-021200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
336 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERSECTS A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF ST LOUIS...OR IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND IN THE EASTERN OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PROVIDE FOR THE ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NEEDED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

TES