Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 020101
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
801 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

MOC221-020130-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-060502T0130Z/
WASHINGTON MO-
801 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT 
FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 759 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH OVER LATTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
OLD MINES AND CADET.

TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

LAT...LON 3804 9096 3790 9089 3794 9064 3821 9090

$$

BRITT

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 020120
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
818 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

MOC221-020128-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-060502T0130Z/
WASHINGTON MO-
818 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY IS 
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE COUNTY.

AT 818 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CALEDONIA 
WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER FAR 
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM CDT.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

LAT...LON 3804 9096 3790 9089 3794 9064 3821 9090

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
523 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT UNDER UPPER
CLOSED LOW. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THEN SETTLE INTO NORTH AR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER NORTHERN IA LAST EVENING WILL OPEN UP
AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN DIGGING A SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CLOSE
OFF AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SHOULD SET OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY BY THE NAM, GFS AND UKMET WITH LOW KS. LOOKS
LIKE THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH IF THE MODELS ARE ON
TARGET. A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE REGION. THE
UKMETS QPF FORECASTS A 2 INCH BULLSEYE OVER KC METRO AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST WEVE EVER SEEN. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH H3 JET OF 80-100 KTS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. JET IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND
UKMET FORECAST SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL MO AT THAT TIME
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LGT SHRA MOVG INTO UIN AND COU AREAS AHD OF
SHRTWV TROF EXTDG FM NWRN MO SW THRU SERN KS. WK SFC TROF ALSO
EXTDS FM BTWN COU AND STL SW THRU NERN OK. PLENTY OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FM STL SWD AHD OF THIS SFC TROF. SHOULD
BE SOME SHRA IN UIN AND COU THIS EVNG WITH TSRA IN THE STL AREA.
PLENTY OF MID LVL CLOUD CVR AHD OF THE SHRTWV TROF WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS ABV 3000FT. MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN UIN AND COU
WITHIN SHRA ACTIVITY...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IN TSRA IN STL AND SUS. THIS PCPN SHOULD PUSH SE OF
THE STL AREA BY 06Z TUE FOLLOWED BY A CLRG SKY AND SFC WNDS BCMG
W-NWLY BHND SFC TROF.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-021200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
336 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERSECTS A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF ST LOUIS...OR IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND IN THE EASTERN OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PROVIDE FOR THE ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NEEDED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

TES