Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
FORECAST AREA AT MID AFTERNOON WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND REACH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL TRACK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
STRONGER STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AIR HAS DESTABILIZED
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE BASED LIS -9 ACROSS PARTS OF
MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. EXPECT TWO SHOTS AT SEVERE WEATHER. FIRST
THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS IN TENNESSEE MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE. SECOND WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT AS
UNSTABLE AIR FROM MISSOURI WORKS EAST AND COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY 06Z WITH A
STRONGER JET STREAK BEHIND IT. 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB WILL ALSO
AID IN STRONG WINDS GUSTS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP INTO LINES
TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD CORE LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP AIR UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
READINGS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL GO A LITTLE
COOLER THAN GFS MOS BUT BELIEVE NAM MOS IS TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY AT
LEX. WILL GO WITH A BLEND.

SCHOLZ

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL CLEAR BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY
AND REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. THIS
COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MAKE FROST A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA.

READINGS WILL REBOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MID RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AT 00Z THURSDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY WE WILL USE
THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR THIS FORECAST. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS A
WARM FRONT TRAVELS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
MOST OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY.

AS MENTIONED THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WE MAY NEED TO
ADD PRECIPITATION TO NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST IF THE EUROPEAN AND
CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY.  --JA

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-030830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
340 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL... GUSTY WINDS... DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ...AND TRAVEL EASTWARD
INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IN THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM EDT.

THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY...MAINLY
TONIGHT. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA... OR VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE FOR UPDATES AND MORE INFORMATION.

JA