Severe Thunderstorm Warning 425, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

MAJOR FLASH AND AREAL FLOODING A BIG PROBLEM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT A LESSER CONCERN...BEST
SHOT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 22Z (NWRN FA) TO 06Z (SERN
FA)TNGT.

NEW TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF OUR FA
TIL 14Z THIS MORNING. MORE WILL LIKELY FOLLOW LATE TDA.

WILL EXPAND FLOOD WATCH TO COVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (FA) THRU
8 AM EDT SUN. GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACRS MUCH OF
OUR FA IN THE LAST 18 HRS WITH SOME LOCAL 6 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS
PRIMARILY ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS FROM BRECKINRIDGE TO HARDIN TO NELSON
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TSTMS ARE NOW TRAINING
ACRS OUR SRN FA WHERE LESSER RAIN OCCURRED IN THE LAST 18 HRS.

WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENTHEN TDA BECOMING MORE OF A
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SW FLO. UPR LVL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE WRN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SHUD REACH FROM THE UPR OH VLY
INTO THE MID MS VLY BU SUN MORNING. TROF WILL THEN MOVE THRU BY LATE
SUN.

TSTMS CONT TO DEVELOP/TRAIN FROM ERN OK/NRN AR/SRN MO WHERE LO LVL
SPEED CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THETA E GRADIENT NORTH OF MOIST
...UNSTABLE AIR ACRS SERN OK/SRN AND CNTRL AR/WRN TN. A RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARY HAS SET UPR ACRS OUR FA AS STORMS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO KY
AND SRN INDIANA. MODELS CONTINUE THIS TSTM DEVELOPMENT/TRAINING
PATTERN EARLY THIS MRNG WHILE SHIFTING THE HEAVIER STORMS NWD ACRS
OUR NRN FA. GFS SHALLOWS THE MOISTURE DURING THE AFTN ACRS OUR
S...IF THIS OCCURS...IF THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE...THAT WILL JUST FEED
INTO A GREATER RISK FOR SVR STORMS (MORE INSTABILITY) AVAILABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH SHUD CLEAR OUR ERN COUNTIES BY SUN MRNG.

WITH STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...PRIMARY MCS
DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY SHUD BE LINEAR (SQUALL LINE) WITH EMBEDDED
BOWING SEGMENTS AND MAYBE A TORNADO OR TWO POLEWARD OF BOW APEX.
TORNADOES A BETTER POSSIBILITY IF MORE SUN AVAILABLE ACRS OUR SRN FA
TDA AS INDICATED BY THE GFS.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TO CONT MOST OF MORNING ACRS OUR FA WITH
AFOREMENTIONED LO LVL JET DIRECTED INTO BOUNDARY...AGAIN EXPECT TO
LIFT SLOWLY NWD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAINFALL RATES THRU THE
MORNING. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 ICHES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL THRU NOON TDA
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH THE SQUALL LINE LATE TDA/TNGT. WIDESPREAD
FLOODING (AREAL AND RIVER) WILL RESULT WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
HIGH LATE TDA WITH SQUALL LINE PASSAGE.

KIRKPATRICK

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE PREV FCST TREND WI RW- ENDING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE FA AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX AND VIGOROUS STORM
SYSTEM IS REPLACED BY A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. NOT
REALLY CANADIAN AIR BUT PACIFIC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR OR ONLY A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE LATEST
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES ARE INDICATING THAT A RATHER STRONG TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND FORCE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO REALLY SETTLE ON
JUST HOW MUCH CANADIAN AIR WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FCST TRENDS FOR LATE IN THE WORKWEEK. --21

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 AM EDT/700 AM CDT SUN.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 AM EDT/700 AM CDT SUN.
&&

KIRKPATRICK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORR TO DAYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-230830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
330 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 /430 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY NORTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AMPLE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY MOVING WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO INDIVIDUAL
STORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TOMORROW...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUING
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TOMORROW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. LINEAR CONVECTION...IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE OR
INDIVIDUAL BOW ECHOS...MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS.

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM...SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30
MPH IN SPOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON
NOAA ALL-HAZARDS RADIO OR ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

JSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 AM     FLOOD            HARRODSBURG             37.77N 84.85W
09/23/2006                   MERCER             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE CHAPLIN RIVER IN WESTERN MERCER COUNTY IS OUT OF ITS
            BANKS IN PLACES.

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
124 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

KYZ028-045-046-053-054-063>065-230630-
GREEN-HARDIN-HART-LARUE-MARION-NELSON-TAYLOR-WASHINGTON-
124 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING
GREEN...HARDIN...HART...LARUE...MARION...NELSON...TAYLOR AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR...

AT 122 AM EDT(1222 AM CDT)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13
MILES NORTHEAST OF LEITCHFIELD TO 12 MILES NORTH OF MUNFORDVILLE TO 9
MILES WEST OF MUNFORDVILLE TO BROWNSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR MUNFORDVILLE BY 1230 AM CDT.
  5 MILES SOUTH OF ELIZABETHTOWN BY 140 AM EDT.
  NEAR HODGENVILLE BY 145 AM EDT.
  NEAR CAMPBELLSVILLE BY 210 AM EDT.
  NEAR LEBANON BY 215 AM EDT.
  NEAR SPRINGFIELD BY 225 AM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
53 AND 94.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 123 AND 137.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10
AND 34.

STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM CAN TOPPLE WEAKLY ROOTED TREES...AND
DOWN POWER LINES DUE TO THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS. TAKE PRECAUTIONS
NOW TO SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
206 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAWRENCEBURG            38.03N 84.89W
09/23/2006                   ANDERSON           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS THE COUNTY
            AND IN LAWRENCEBURG...44 AT TIMBERCREEK SOON TO BE CLOSED
            WITH DEEP WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

SCHOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

KYZ041-042-049-230745-
BOURBON-CLARK-FAYETTE-
302 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...STRONG STORMS AFFECTING BOURBON...CLARK AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 259 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON...AND MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
HALF MILE...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH... ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR WINCHESTER BY 320 AM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
101 AND 98.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
104 AND 118.

STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM CAN TOPPLE WEAKLY ROOTED TREES...AND
DOWN POWER LINES DUE TO THE VERY WET SOIL CONDITIONS. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

KYZ056-057-066-067-230745-
CASEY-GARRARD-LINCOLN-MADISON-
307 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...STRONG STORMS MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AT 303 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF
RICHMOND TO STANFORD TO 9 MILES EAST OF LIBERTY...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEXINGTON TO 18 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LIBERTY TO 9 MILES EAST OF LIBERTY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH... ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR RICHMOND BY 315 AM EDT.
  NEAR CRAB ORCHARD BY 320 AM EDT.
  NEAR KINGSTON BY 325 AM EDT.
  NEAR WACO BY 330 AM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
76 AND 90.

STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM CAN TOPPLE WEAKLY ROOTED TREES...AND
DOWN POWER LINES DUE TO THE VERY WET SOIL CONDITIONS. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

KYZ075>078-081-082-230800-
ADAIR-CLINTON-CUMBERLAND-METCALFE-MONROE-RUSSELL-
213 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...STRONG STORMS WILL SOON BE AFFECTING
ADAIR...CLINTON...CUMBERLAND...METCALFE...MONROE AND RUSSELL
COUNTIES...

AT 207 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
EDMONTON TO EDMONTON TO TOMPKINSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
HALF MILE...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH... ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR BREEDING BY 220 AM CDT.
  5 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBIA BY 225 AM CDT.
  NEAR BURKESVILLE BY 235 AM CDT.
  NEAR JAMESTOWN BY 250 AM CDT.
  NEAR ALBANY BY 300 AM CDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE CUMBERLAND (NUNN) PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 49 AND 62.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING
WATER ON LOCAL ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR
HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS
STORM MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR CAR INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHOTT