Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 230211
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1010 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

KYC027-093-230230-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-HARDIN KY-
910 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT (1030 PM 
EDT) FOR HARDIN AND SOUTHERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES...

AT 1008 PM EDT (908 PM CDT)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM ELIZABETHTOWN TO 7 MILES 
SOUTH OF HARDINSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE 
STORMS AS THEY REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
VERTREES...DYER...CUSTER...VINE GROVE...RINEYVILLE...RADCLIFF AND 
BIG SPRING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE MANY WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3782 8663 3784 8621 3779 8614 3782 8602
      3784 8600 3785 8582 3762 8581 3760 8650
      3763 8653 3760 8654 3760 8661

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORR TO ADD WATCH INFO AND FIX TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

MAIN CONCERNS CENTER AROUND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY.

UPPER AIR PATTERN CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS NOW
CO-LOCATED WITH UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OF CONCERN FOR OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
EXISTING TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE
INTO ILLINOIS LATE TOMORROW.

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW
MODIFIED TROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. THE NAM FORECASTS
AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

EARLIER STORMS DUMPED ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXTENDING FROM BUTLER COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS REGION. FEEL THE GREATEST THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT IS STALLED ALONG WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER. SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE RAIN COOLED AIR WILL RETARD NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT.

BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW EXPANDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND A LEAD
DISTURBANCE EJECTS AHEAD OF THE LARGER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

BOTH MODELS CONCENTRATE PRECIP ALONG/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

ATTENTION NOW WILL TURN TO SEVERE WX CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. THE
SEVERE STORMS CENTER HAS PLACED OUR FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.

KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY WITHIN WARM SECTOR TOMORROW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE  DURING
THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER FORCING TOMORROW AFTERNOON ANY
STORMS WILL BE OF A MORE SCATTERED NATURE. HOWEVER...STRONG
UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BRING A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
TOMORROW AS 35 MPH WINDS AT 3000 FEET MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL LATE TOMORROW AS A LINE OF
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.

JSD

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A SQUALL LINE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS A VERY REAL THREAT
NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA.

SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE PREV FCST TREND WI RW- ENDING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE FA AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX AND VIGOROUS STORM
SYSTEM IS REPLACED BY A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. NOT
REALLY CANADIAN AIR BUT PACIFIC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR OR ONLY A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE LATEST
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES ARE INDICATING THAT A RATHER STRONG TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND FORCE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO REALLY SETTLE ON
JUST HOW MUCH CANADIAN AIR WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FCST TRENDS FOR LATE IN THE WORKWEEK. --21

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 AM EDT/600 AM CDT SUNDAY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO CAMPBELLSVILLE TO LEXINGTON.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 AM EDT SUNDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORR TO DAYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-230830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
330 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 /430 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY NORTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AMPLE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY MOVING WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO INDIVIDUAL
STORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TOMORROW...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUING
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TOMORROW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. LINEAR CONVECTION...IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE OR
INDIVIDUAL BOW ECHOS...MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS.

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM...SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30
MPH IN SPOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON
NOAA ALL-HAZARDS RADIO OR ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
817 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

INZ079-KYZ032-230200-
JEFFERSON IN-TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...BEDFORD
817 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ON THE SCOTT...JEFFERSON COUNTY INDIANA LINE
WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AS IT MOVES
THROUGH JEFFERSON COUNTY INDIANA AND TRIMBLE COUNTY KENTUCKY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
STORM. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER IN ROADWAYS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

CROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
902 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TELL CITY               37.95N 86.76W
09/22/2006                   PERRY              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS UP TO THE CURBS IN SOME STREETS IN DOWNTOWN
            TELL CITY.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
903 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HUNTINGBURG             38.30N 86.96W
09/22/2006                   DUBOIS             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS WERE FLOODED AND BARRICADED IN HUNTINGBURG
            AND ALSO IN FERDINAND.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
914 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LEAVENWORTH             38.20N 86.35W
09/22/2006  E0.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COOPERATIVE OBSERVER HAD 2.68 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 815 PM
            EDT...USING AN UNOFFICIAL ELECTRONIC GAGE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LEAVENWORTH             38.20N 86.35W
09/22/2006  E2.68 INCH       CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COOPERATIVE OBSERVER HAD 2.68 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 815 PM
            EDT...USING AN UNOFFICIAL ELECTRONIC GAGE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
920 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCQUADY                 37.70N 86.52W
09/22/2006                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN THE ROUGH RIVER AREA.

&&

MRC