Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
850 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

.UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
EDT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BAKER...NASSAU...DUVAL COUNTIES OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ZONE PACKAGE HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE NECESSARY HEADLINES AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...
     COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...
     MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.

GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...INSTABILITY/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINATION APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE T-STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
THE EVENING ACROSS NRN FL DUE TO BOUNDARIES FROM SE AL MCS AS WELL AS
SEABREEZE. THINK COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WELL AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF HEATING...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TNGT. MILD NIGHT WITH
DEWPTS IN 65-70 RANGE. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TMRW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS...WITH
CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA LATE TOMORROW...BRINGING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR...NOT EXACTLY WHAT LAST WEEKENDS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAD WHEN
CALLING FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPS FOR THE WED/THUR TIMEFRAME.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN STATES...WITH SUGGESTION OF T-STORM POTENTIAL
LATE SAT THRU MONDAY. LOOKING FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
HIGHS IN 75-80 RANGE AND LOWS IN 50S AS WE GET TO SUN/MON.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY AND A
CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED THU/THU NIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER BRIEFLY NW EARLY FRIDAY THEN SHIFT BACK TO WEST
AND SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS REMAIN WEST FOLLOWING FROPA SUNDAY AND DUE
TO POSITION OF PARENT LOW OVER NE U.S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (FROPA)
AND RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 25 PERCENT INLAND NE FL AND TO
30-35 PCNT AT THE COAST. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVANCE WATCH FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

ZAPPE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-110400-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
755 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BAKER...DUVAL...NASSAU COUNTIES OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS....

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WATCH...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS EVENING FOR REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THIS MEANS THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY MORNING
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
743 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

GAZ132-133-149-110045-
ATKINSON-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
743 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COFFEE...
JEFF DAVIS...AND ATKINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WINDS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF
COFFEE...JEFF DAVIS...AND ATKINSON COUNTIES AROUND 8 PM.  STRONG
WINDS NEAR 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
OCCUR. AREAS AFFECTED WILL INCLUDE HAZLEHURST...DOUGLAS...
PRIDGEN...AMBROSE...AND PEARSON. REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN
CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-
499-1594.

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
823 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

GAZ134-150-110115-
BACON-WARE-
823 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WARE AND BACON
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 823 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
26 MILES NORTHWEST OF BICKLEY TO 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILLWOOD TO 32
MILES WEST OF MILLWOOD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH
OF BROXTON TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOUGLAS TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NASHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BICKLEY...MILLWOOD...
ALMA...NEW LACY...DIXIE UNION AND WARESBORO THROUGH 915 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
837 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

GAZ163-110115-
CLINCH-
837 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 837 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HOMERVILLE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEARSON...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND HOMERVILLE AND ARGYLE THROUGH 915 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZIBURA