Red Flag Warning 69, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
850 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

.UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
EDT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BAKER...NASSAU...DUVAL COUNTIES OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ZONE PACKAGE HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE NECESSARY HEADLINES AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...
     COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...
     MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.

GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...INSTABILITY/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINATION APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE T-STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
THE EVENING ACROSS NRN FL DUE TO BOUNDARIES FROM SE AL MCS AS WELL AS
SEABREEZE. THINK COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WELL AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF HEATING...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TNGT. MILD NIGHT WITH
DEWPTS IN 65-70 RANGE. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TMRW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS...WITH
CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA LATE TOMORROW...BRINGING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR...NOT EXACTLY WHAT LAST WEEKENDS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAD WHEN
CALLING FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPS FOR THE WED/THUR TIMEFRAME.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN STATES...WITH SUGGESTION OF T-STORM POTENTIAL
LATE SAT THRU MONDAY. LOOKING FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
HIGHS IN 75-80 RANGE AND LOWS IN 50S AS WE GET TO SUN/MON.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY AND A
CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED THU/THU NIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER BRIEFLY NW EARLY FRIDAY THEN SHIFT BACK TO WEST
AND SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS REMAIN WEST FOLLOWING FROPA SUNDAY AND DUE
TO POSITION OF PARENT LOW OVER NE U.S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (FROPA)
AND RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 25 PERCENT INLAND NE FL AND TO
30-35 PCNT AT THE COAST. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVANCE WATCH FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

ZAPPE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-110400-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
755 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BAKER...DUVAL...NASSAU COUNTIES OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS....

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WATCH...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS EVENING FOR REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THIS MEANS THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY MORNING
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLACKSHEAR              31.30N 82.24W
05/10/2006  E60 MPH          PIERCE             GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E HOMERVILLE          31.04N 82.72W
05/10/2006                   CLINCH             GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINE ALONG HIGHWAY 84.

&&

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
944 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

GAZ153-154-165-166-110230-
COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-
944 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAMDEN AND GLYNN
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

AT 944 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
26 MILES NORTHWEST OF EVERETT TO 16 MILES WEST OF EVERETT TO 10 MILES
WEST OF THALMANN TO 18 MILES WEST OF TARBORO...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF JESUP TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GARDI TO
9 MILES NORTHEAST OF NAHUNTA TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF HOBOKEN...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND THALMANN...EVERETT...TARBORO...WAVERLY...WOODBINE...
COLESBURG...BOYS ESTATE AND DOCK JUNCTION THROUGH 1030 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1027 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND GST     SCREVEN                 31.48N 82.02W
05/10/2006  E40.00 MPH       WAYNE              GA   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S WAYCROSS            31.20N 82.36W
05/10/2006  E50.00 MPH       WARE               GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL LIMB DAMAGE AND MINOR ROAD FLOODING REPORTED.

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLACKSHEAR              31.30N 82.24W
05/10/2006                   PIERCE             GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1-2 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF.

&&

SEC

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