Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
204 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2006

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY TODAY ALONG PRESSURE
TROUGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE.
ALOFT...RUC IS INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL PVA
STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY PROVIDING IMPETUS FOR
STORMS TO REACH LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. ACCORDING TO THE
SOUNDING...AREAS ABOVE THIS POINT HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR
CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO
THE EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE HAIL POTENTIAL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT TILT TO KEEP HAIL SEPARATED FROM SATURATED
UPDRAFT. IN ADDITION...MODERATE LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE.
LIMITING FACTOR THUS FAR HAS BEEN GETTING THE UPDRAFT WELL ABOVE
THE FREEZING LEVEL BUT FEEL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DISPARITIES CONTINUE AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WILL MAINLY GO WITH RADAR TRENDS
FOR THE 6 HOUR POPS AND THEN TAPER TO LOW END SCATTERED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS
WHICH SENDS THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE
THE NAM DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITH A
SECONDARY MOISTURE SURGE SOUTHWARD.

FOR TUESDAY...AGAIN A BLEND GENERALLY USED WITH PRESSURE TROUGH
BECOMING ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA.
HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS TAKE A RESPITE ON
WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE ONE OF OUR
FIRST PURELY SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION DAYS. COLLISION LOOKS TO
BE RIGHT ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WITH LOWER PWATS...LOW END
SCATTERED POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.

LARGE SCALE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST BEGINS A PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS SUCH FRONTS HAVE
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...THIS ONE LOOKS
TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS FOR NOW WITH THE PASSAGE WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
TWEAKED UP WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND DGEX WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A NELY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS AND WILL GO
WITH 15 KT WINDS. BY WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SE THEN VEER TO
SW THURSDAY AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  81  64  86 /  40  30  20  40
SSI  65  78  65  82 /  50  30  20  20
JAX  65  81  64  85 /  60  40  30  20
SGJ  67  79  66  83 /  60  40  30  20
GNV  66  86  64  88 /  50  40  30  30
OCF  67  87  65  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...DEESE
MARINE/FIRE WX...TRABERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
452 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2006

FLZ032-082130-
CLAY-
452 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLAY COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 452 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
6 MILES NORTH OF MIDDLEBURG TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF PENNEY FARMS...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF LAKESIDE TO 14 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MELROSE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND MIDDLEBURG...ASBURY
LAKE...PENNEY FARMS...LAKESIDE...DOCTORS INLET...BELLAIR-MEADOWBROOK
TERRA...ORANGE PARK AND GREEN COVE SPRINGS THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CAMP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
535 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2006

FLZ033-082215-
ST. JOHNS-
535 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. JOHNS COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 535 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER FRUIT COVE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SWITZERLAND...
FRUIT COVE...DURBIN...GUANA RIVER STATE PARK AND SOUTH PONTE VEDRA
BEACH THROUGH 615 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CAMP

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