Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
204 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2006

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY TODAY ALONG PRESSURE
TROUGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE.
ALOFT...RUC IS INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL PVA
STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY PROVIDING IMPETUS FOR
STORMS TO REACH LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. ACCORDING TO THE
SOUNDING...AREAS ABOVE THIS POINT HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR
CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO
THE EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE HAIL POTENTIAL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT TILT TO KEEP HAIL SEPARATED FROM SATURATED
UPDRAFT. IN ADDITION...MODERATE LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE.
LIMITING FACTOR THUS FAR HAS BEEN GETTING THE UPDRAFT WELL ABOVE
THE FREEZING LEVEL BUT FEEL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DISPARITIES CONTINUE AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WILL MAINLY GO WITH RADAR TRENDS
FOR THE 6 HOUR POPS AND THEN TAPER TO LOW END SCATTERED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS
WHICH SENDS THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE
THE NAM DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITH A
SECONDARY MOISTURE SURGE SOUTHWARD.

FOR TUESDAY...AGAIN A BLEND GENERALLY USED WITH PRESSURE TROUGH
BECOMING ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA.
HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS TAKE A RESPITE ON
WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE ONE OF OUR
FIRST PURELY SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION DAYS. COLLISION LOOKS TO
BE RIGHT ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WITH LOWER PWATS...LOW END
SCATTERED POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.

LARGE SCALE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST BEGINS A PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS SUCH FRONTS HAVE
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...THIS ONE LOOKS
TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS FOR NOW WITH THE PASSAGE WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
TWEAKED UP WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND DGEX WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A NELY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS AND WILL GO
WITH 15 KT WINDS. BY WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SE THEN VEER TO
SW THURSDAY AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  81  64  86 /  40  30  20  40
SSI  65  78  65  82 /  50  30  20  20
JAX  65  81  64  85 /  60  40  30  20
SGJ  67  79  66  83 /  60  40  30  20
GNV  66  86  64  88 /  50  40  30  30
OCF  67  87  65  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...DEESE
MARINE/FIRE WX...TRABERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-091000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
200 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...

A STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE THOSE ALONG THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH THIS AXIS
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL/DEESE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
130 PM EDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     HAIL             YULEE                   30.63N 81.57W
05/08/2006  E0.25 INCH       NASSAU             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN NASSAUVILLE.

&&

PKEEGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
142 PM EDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             3 S FERNANDINA BEACH    30.61N 81.45W
05/08/2006  M1.00 INCH       NASSAU             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER AT THE
            AMELIA ISLAND PLANTATION.

&&

PKEEGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
149 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2006

FLZ022-023-081830-
BAKER-COLUMBIA-
149 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BAKER AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 149 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 20 MILES WEST OF TAYLOR...OR ABOUT 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITE SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SANDERSON AND TAYLOR
THROUGH 230 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

WOLF

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