Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
STACKED SFC TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NW OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE MEAN SFC TO 500MB FLOW CONTINUES MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST
AT 5-10 KNOTS...SO ATLC COAST SBRZ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND. CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ANOTHER GUD ROUND OF SCTD STRONG TO ISOLD SVR
TSTMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100-105
ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY...GFS/NAM QUITE DIFFERENT IN THEIR PATTERN WITH THE GFS
VEERING THE MEAN FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE
FLOW EASTERLY AND THIS LEADS TO POPS IN THE 40-60% RANGE WITH THE
GFS AND IN THE 20-40% RANGE FOR THE NAM AND FOR NOW HAVE BLENDED THE
TWO MODELS FOR A SLOW RAMP UP IN AFTERNOON POPS TO 30 TO 50% AND
HAVE KEPT POP MAX AXIS STILL ACRS INLAND AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL
GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACRS NERN FL AND MID/UPPER 90S ACRS
SERN GA AND THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES SAT
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

SUNDAY...GFS/NAM CONTINUE THEIR DIFFERENCES AS FLOW WITH THE GFS
VEERS ALL THE WAY TO THE SW AND DEEPENS THE MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM
REMAINS DRIER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFS HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO MORE OF A BLEND WITH POPS UP INTO THE
40-60% RANGE WITH A SHIFT IN THE MAX POP AXIS EASTWARD INTO THE U.S.
301 AND 17 CORRIDORS AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO I-95 IF THE GFS
RINGS TRUE. MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER PCPN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MEAN SFC TO 500MB FLOW WILL REMAIN W/SWLY AND MOIST NEXT WEEK AND
POPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40-60% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCTD STRONG TSTMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY IN THE FASTER
FLOW AND WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SVR TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...A TRANSITION PERIOD IN STORE FOR THE WATERS AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW
CURRENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN BELOW
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE LOOKS TO GET LOST IN
THE LATEST GFS RUN AND REGARDLESS LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH TO WARRANT ANY
MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SWELL ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  74  94 /  30  40  40  50
SSI  77  92  76  91 /  10  30  20  50
JAX  74  94  74  93 /  20  30  20  50
SGJ  76  90  75  90 /  20  30  20  40
GNV  73  93  72  93 /  20  50  30  40
OCF  73  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...HESS
MARINE/FIRE WX...DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
509 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-291000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
509 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE
100 TO 105 RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL ALLOW
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CAUSE MINOR TEMPORARY FLOODING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 4 4 1 WITH SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE SEABREEZES. ON SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE EXPECTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED IN
THEIR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MKT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

GAZ152-282015-
BRANTLEY-
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BRANTLEY COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

AT 327 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAYNESVILLE...OR 13
MILES EAST OF NAHUNTA...STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WAYNESVILLE AND ATKINSON THROUGH 415 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

GAZ150-282030-
WARE-
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN WARE
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BICKLEY...OR 7
MILES SOUTH OF ALMA...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BICKLEY THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

FLZ022-282015-
COLUMBIA-
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF WATERTOWN...OR 8
MILES EAST OF LAKE CITY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND FIVE POINTS...WATERTOWN...
WINFIELD AND LAKE CITY THROUGH 415 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
411 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

FLZ040-282100-
MARION-
411 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTH OF LYNNE...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND LYNNE...SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...SANTOS AND OCALA THROUGH 500
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
421 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

GAZ152-282100-
BRANTLEY-
421 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BRANTLEY COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 421 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATKINSON...OR 10
MILES EAST OF NAHUNTA...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WAYNESVILLE...ATKINSON
AND NAHUNTA THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

SHASHY