Severe Thunderstorm Warning 522, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUSLY STAGNANT WEATHER SITUATION ALL DAY OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY IS NOW BECOMING PROGRESSIVE AS UPPER ENERGY BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW (DOWN TO 995 MB) THAT HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER FORCING IS NOW LIFTING OUT TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN QUITE HIGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...BUT HAVE RELAXED SOME ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. MAIN LINE OF HEAVY RAIN (AND SEVERE WX)
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH SAID LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...AND THE NOW PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WHOLE SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO PASS EAST THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BEFORE
12Z. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN BAND AFTER
SUN-UP IN EASTERN MS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
EXTREME DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY STORMS COULD PRODUCE 2
INCHES OF LIQUID IN SPOTS...WITH MODERATE RAIN SURROUNDING THE
HEAVIER BAND CAPABLE OF AT LEAST ANOTHER INCH. SO...THAT MATH SHOULD
YIELD ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIP THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MS AND FLOOD WATCH LEFT INTACT. AS FOR SEVERE
THREAT...HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY
IS PROVING ENOUGH TO GENERATE NASTY LOOKING BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN
THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE BOWING SEGMENTS AND AN
ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR TWO WARRANT THE TORNADO RISK...WHILE
SVR WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ALMOST ALL OF THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOW DEEMED TO BE WITH THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
COMING THROUGH AND THE RISK OF SEVERE CELLS OUT AHEAD SEEMS MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME.

UPDATED THE 1ST AND 2ND PERIOD PACKAGES TO CUT OFF THE EXPECTATION
OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST MORE QUICKLY...IN RESPONSE TO OBSERVED
TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED LOWS UPWARD A BIT. NEW TOR WATCH 834 IS
INCLUDED FOR NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH A SOMEWHAT TRIMMED 833 IN THERE
AS WELL. FLASH FLOOD WATCH LEFT INTACT FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH 7
AM...BUT WILL LIKELY START CANCELING WATCH FROM THE WEST AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON AND RAIN SHUTS OFF. FINALLY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY
EXTENDED FOR ALL CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH 5 AM...ALTHOUGH
ALL WIND ADVISORIES ENDED IN WESTERN ZONES. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...
LOTS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS SURROUND A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 7 TO 8 AM. OUTSIDE
OF HEAVY BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN VERY GUSTY (20 TO 30 KTS) OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND
RELAX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO LLWS IS EXPECTED OR IS
BEING EXPERIENCED. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  87  62  87 / 100  13   7  12
MERIDIAN      72  86  55  86 / 100  32   7  12
VICKSBURG     67  88  61  88 / 100   7   7  12
HATTIESBURG   77  90  60  89 / 100  37   6  12
NATCHEZ       70  87  64  87 / 100  10   7  12
GREENVILLE    64  84  60  88 / 100   2   8  12
GREENWOOD     66  83  60  87 / 100   4   7  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-
     MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ036-MSZ037-
     MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-
     MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-
     MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-
     MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-
     MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-
     MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ040-
     MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-MSZ048-
     MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-
     MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-
     MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-
     LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
180338-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1038 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE...INCLUDING A LINE FROM GRENADA TO
YAZOO CITY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST HAS
RESULTED IN WARM TROPICAL AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE AS A
VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAINFALL WILL BECOME VERY HEAVY AS A LINE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE AREA. REFER
TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAIL.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE OUTLOOK
AREA FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION FROM A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY OCTOBER 23.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
512 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 N OAK RIDGE          32.80N 91.77W
10/16/2006                   MOREHOUSE          LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OVERTURNED MOBILE HOME, 18 WHEELER BLOWN OVER, AND POWER
            LINES DOWN NEAR MER ROUGE COMMUNITY.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
759 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RAYVILLE                32.47N 91.76W
10/16/2006                   RICHLAND           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PARISH WIDE. MANY ROADS CLOSED AND
            UNDER WATER.

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WINNSBORO               32.16N 91.72W
10/16/2006                   FRANKLIN           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PARISH WIDE. MANY ROADS CLOSED AND
            UNDER WATER.

0417 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW HOLLANDALE         33.11N 90.93W
10/16/2006                   WASHINGTON         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A COUPLE OF TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

TARVER