Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE DAY TODAY AND ITS NOT OVER ALL THE ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HAS BEEN
PRODUCING HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS. WE ARE NOW SEEING SIGNS OF
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING S OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE LA. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE A GREAT DEAL GOING FOR THEM AS LONG AS THEY STAY CLOSE OR
JUST S OF THE BOUNDARY. VERY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT VEERED OUT WEST...BUT SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. THESE ARE THE STORMS TO WATCH OUT FOR DUE TO THE VERY
HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY (3500) MLCAPE. THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY
CAN MORE THAN MAKE UP FOR SOMEWHAT LOW SHEAR FOR TORNADOES AND
POSSIBLY EVENT STRONG TORNADOES. THE STRONG ASCENT IS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND THINGS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE FROM NOW THROUGH
01-02Z. DUE TO WHAT IS EXPECTED FROM NOW INTO THE EVENING...WILL HIT
POPS HARD I-20 AND SOUTH AND THEN SE.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...I EXPANDED IT EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FURTHER SOUTH BOUNDARY AND TRAINING OF CELLS. THE I-20 CORRIDOR
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK OUT GOOD...BUT THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL
LIKELY NOT SEE THE FLOODING TYPE OF RAINS. DUE TO THIS...I WILL
ADJUST THE THE FFA SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE NW AND N-CENTRAL COUNTIES.

THINGS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH AND PUSH EAST BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND 50S ARE
EXPECTED THU MORNING.

LOTS OF SUN AND A REALLY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THU WITH 75 TO 80
DEGREES AREAWIDE. THE PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
FRI/FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR TEMPS.   /CME/

LONGER TERM(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY NOW BEING PROGGED TO SINK SSEWD INTO
THE TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS. THIS CLOSED UPPER FEATURE WILL BE ABOUT
4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH
MAY BE TOO EXTREME AS FAR AS MODELS ARE CONCERN. PER NCEP THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD BE MORE LIKE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. THIS CLOSED
LOW WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR OUR CWFA AS NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR THEN RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A DRY SLOT BEFORE
ADDITIONAL LIMITED MOISTURE WRAPS IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A CHANCE OF SOME HAIL PRODUCING STORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
PLAINS. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL COME OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA AND WILL ROTATE AROUND THE FIRST UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
US. THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE FIRST ONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE NIGHTS WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. DAILY HIGHS WILL
BE 75 TO 85 ON SATURDAY...65 TO 75 ON SUNDAY...70S ON MONDAY...75 TO
80 ON TUESDAY... AND 80 TO 85 ON WEDNESDAY. WENT CLOSE TO 00Z MEX.

A MORE STOUT BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES ON THE MODELS WITH UPPER FLOW
FOR THE LOWER MS VALLEY MORE WNW. SHORTWAVES IN THIS REGIME YIELD
UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THESE SETUPS CAN LEAD TO SEWD-MOVING HAILSTORMS THIS
TIME OF YEAR./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  78  50  78 /  92   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      56  76  47  78 / 100   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     54  80  53  81 /  52   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   59  80  46  79 / 100   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       54  77  48  79 /  72   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    50  76  49  79 /  29   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     52  75  52  77 /  37   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ031-MSZ032-
     MSZ033-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-
     MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-
     MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ008-LAZ009-
     LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ025.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: CME
LONG TERM: 17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1118 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111618-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1118 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A WINNSBORO TO
CRYSTAL SPRINGS TO LAUREL LINE. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL SEE
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

A COMPLEX OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS PLACED
A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AND
STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS
AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORNING OUTFLOW AND
STORMS...AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM JUST WEST OF THE RIVER AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY ORGANIZE
INTO AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE. ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 70 OR 80
MPH. ANY SUPERCELL NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

EVERYONE IS URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE.

...FLOODING...
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING RAINS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES FELL ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING FROM
ADDITIONAL STORMS TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS AN
ADDED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TODAY...OTHERWISE SHOULD NOT BE
NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1207 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             2 N GREENVILLE          33.41N 91.05W
05/10/2006  M0.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1210 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE GUNNISON           33.91N 90.91W
05/10/2006                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON WARFIELD ROAD.

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N PACE                33.84N 90.86W
05/10/2006                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON PEMBLE ROAD OFF OF HIGHWAY 61.

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1216 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW CLEVELAND          33.70N 90.78W
05/10/2006                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 446 NEAR SKENE.

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
101 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRENADA                 33.78N 89.81W
05/10/2006                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN GRENADA...ONE HOUSE DAMAGED BY FALLING
            TREES.

1233 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S GRENADA             33.73N 89.81W
05/10/2006                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF A HOME IN THE ELLIOT COMMUNITY.

&&

CRAVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
150 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TORNADO          3 NE COLLINSVILLE       32.53N 88.81W
05/10/2006                   LAUDERDALE         MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN...RELAYED THROUGH
            WTOK TV.

&&

CRAVEN