Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 101739
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

MSC087-101815-
LOWNDES MS-
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR
LOWNDES COUNTY...

AT 1227 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED 
AREA.  

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWNDES COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED 
AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3329 8831 3330 8866 3350 8865 3350 8860
      3354 8851 3353 8848 3361 8846 3366 8850
      3368 8837 3374 8830 3374 8825

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WX DAY ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH ONLY MORE ACTION
TO COME. THIS UPDATE IS MAINLY TO PASS ALONG THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON
THE EVOLUTION AND TO ADJ CURRENT FORECAST FOR LASTEST TRENDS ON
TEMPS AND INCREASE THE POPS.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PUSHED THROUGH WAY MORE THAN ANTICIPATED
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT A TOTAL SURPRISE. THIS LAID A VERY NICE SFC
BOUNDARY FROM JUST S OF GLH TO JUST S OF MEI. THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION MOVED OUT OF AR EARLIER THIS MORNING  AND IS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS KEY AS IT IS JUST
REINFORCING THE SFC BOUNDARY. EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR EXIST TO THE
SOUTH WITH 3000-4000 MLCAPE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE WARM
SECTOR IS CAPPING. MUCH STRONGER CAP EXISTS TO OUR WEST WITH THE CAP
STEADILY ERODING THE FURTHER E YOU GO AND THEN NO CAP N OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. THE FORCING THAT IS MOVING IS SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CAP E OF THE MS RIVER. AT THIS
TIME...ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY...IT IS RATHER EASY FOR THE
STORMS TO DEVELOP AND WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...SIG HAIL (GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL) AND SIG WINDS WILL ALL
BE POSSIBLE. A DAMAGING SIG SQUALL LINE IS WHAT IM MOST CONFIDENT
IN. HOWEVER. IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE
STRONG FORCING AND TRACK E AND SE NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY...TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THAT...CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES AS WELL. EVEN IF WE DONT GET
ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE...THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE NASTY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.

AT THIS TIME...TIMING ON THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NOON TO 2 PM ACROSS
THE NW AND W-CENTRAL...1-3 PM FOR TRACE AND WEST...3-7 PM EASTERN
SECTIONS. WITH THAT TIMING...IM EXPECTING THE WORST STORMS TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY 40-50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THIS
WOULD GENERALLY BE JUST S AND THEN N OF I-20 AND ALONG AND S OF HWY
82. I WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO SUPPORT THIS EVOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  54  77  51 /  97  50   0   0
MERIDIAN      86  54  77  48 /  98  68   2   0
VICKSBURG     87  54  78  52 /  96  37   0   0
HATTIESBURG   88  59  80  50 /  79  65   4   0
NATCHEZ       85  55  79  50 /  79  36   0   0
GREENVILLE    76  50  76  50 / 100  29   0   0
GREENWOOD     76  51  74  49 / 100  42   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-
     MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-
     MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039.

LA...NONE.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-
     ARZ075.

&&

CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
557 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111057-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
557 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HAS SET THE STAGE FOR AN
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE IN ORDER WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

A WARM CAPPING LAYER ALOFT SHOULD KEEP VERTICAL MOTION AT BAY
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THEN...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BECOME LIKELY AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH VERY RICH MOISTURE
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 20 AND HIGHWAY 82 AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. INTERACTING BOUNDARIES WILL MEAN
INITIALLY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO
LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS BEFORE A SQUALL LINE FORMS EARLY
TONIGHT ROUGHLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. THE LINE WILL
THEN QUICKLY CROSS THE REST OF EAST MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT TODAY AND TAKE
PROTECTIVE ACTIONS WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS SIGHTED OR WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

...FLOODING...
OVERNIGHT RAINS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES FELL ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 82 SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING FROM
ADDITIONAL STORMS TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TO 6PM FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. AN ADDED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA.

DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS ENTIRE THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL CLIMB ABOVE
70 DEGREES TODAY TO HELP PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ALL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BESIDES THE FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE ALL THE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
946 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     HAIL             8 W HOLCOMB             33.76N 90.12W
05/10/2006  M0.75 INCH       GRENADA            MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 8.

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     HAIL             ALLIGATOR               34.09N 90.72W
05/10/2006  M0.75 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
951 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLEVELAND               33.74N 90.73W
05/10/2006                   BOLIVAR            MS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING REPORTED.

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
957 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE ACKERMAN          33.23N 89.13W
05/10/2006                   CHOCTAW            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 15.

&&

CAMPBELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
101945-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1038 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...
VERY LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
MIDDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARKANSAS WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND POSSIBLY
FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...BY THE MIDDAY HOURS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM THE WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO TENNIS BALL OR BASEBALL SIZED...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.

PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER
TODAY AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACHES OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUISVILLE              33.12N 89.05W
05/10/2006                   WINSTON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES REPORTED DOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CITY.

&&

CAMPBELL