Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
721 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORMS. IN
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM TIME (THRU 13Z THIS MORNING)...CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWED SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KLAF AND KHUF. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN AND WINDS INCREASE A
LITTLE BIT. AT KIND...VCTS NEEDED THRU ABOUT 15Z FOR SCATTERED
TSRA THAT POPPED UP AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER THE 13-15Z TIME FRAME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A
MASSIVE COMPLEX OF TSRA IN EASTERN IOWA LOOKS HEADED THIS WAY AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT AREA AFTER 18Z. HANDLED WITH CB QUALIFIERS
AND VCTS. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION
ISSUES DOES NOT ALLOW FOR PREVAILING FORECASTS OF TSRA AT THIS
TIME.

AFTER 00Z...SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS FOCUS FOR
SHRA AND TSRA. CONTINUED VCTS THRU 06Z KLAF AND KHUF AND THRU THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AT KIND AND KBMG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006)

DISCUSSION FOR ZONES AND GRIDS...WEATHER HAS QUIETED DOWN FOR THE
MOMENT ACROSS INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
KANSAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

GFS STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS
WITH LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS.  NAM SEEMS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN AND WILL GO CLOSE TO THE NAM NEXT FEW
DAYS.  ONE PLACE I WILL DIFFER A LITTLE TODAY IS NAM MAY BE A TAD
FAST WITH COLD FRONT.  THUS AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH LATE TODAY THAN INDICATED BY NAM.

AIRMASS STARTS OUT SOMEWHAT CAPPED THIS MORNING AND WILL NOT BEGIN
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR REGION. WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TO NORTH PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND TO
SOUTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT.  NAM INDICATES CAPES UP TO 3000 J/KG AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TODAY.

NAM STILL INDICATES A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS A S/W MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE FRONT.  850 MB DOES NOT SHOW A VERY STRONG JET BUT THERE
IS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND ALSO THERE IS UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS FROM A 300
MB JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 2
INCHES.  I DONT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BIG HEAVY RAIN EVENT...BUT
THERE ARE ENOUGH THING FAVORING IT TO KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  GFS WITH
ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS OVERDEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE VALLEY AND IS TOO SLOW IN MOVING IT EAST OUT OF OUR REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS OK.  ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DROP MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TOO FAR WEST
SUNDAY TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER.  WILL USE A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES. WITH IT STARTING OUT VERY WARM THIS MORNING WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...JEH

&&

AVIATION...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
932 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-231345-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
832 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 /932 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A FEW AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE LOW LAND FLOODING.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL AND A HOT UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER INDIANA WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WITH THE MAIN THREAT AGAIN
BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PUMA