Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 181820
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

INC031-139-181830-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-060518T1830Z/
DECATUR-RUSH-
220 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DECATUR AND SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES...

AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTY...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
BATESVILLE. THIS STORM WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3940 8554 3940 8530 3958 8530 3958 8554

$$

CO

000 
WWUS53 KIND 181828
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

INC031-139-181838-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-060518T1830Z/
DECATUR-RUSH-
228 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DECATUR AND
SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 230 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 3940 8554 3940 8530 3958 8530 3958 8554

$$

CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
135 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z-18Z TAFS
VIGOROUS S/W PUSHING ACRS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
STRONG/SVR TSRA. BASED UPON RADAR WL FORECAST TSRA ACRS MANY OF THE
TAF SITE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...HAIL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN
SOME OF THE STORMS. THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE TAF SITE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND WL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFT
20Z OR SO...BUT STILL EXPECT VCTS IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING LOSS AND S/W EXITING THIS EVENING
SHOULD END THE PCPN THREAT DURG THE EVENING HRS.

PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS SHUD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG AND SOME MVFR VISBIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHUD MIX OUT QUICKLY
ON AFT 14Z-15Z ON FRI AND CU RULE IS NEGATIVE...SO SOME SCT CU AFT
15Z FRI.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT IS JUST CLEARING
THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS ANCHORED TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR GEORGIAN BAY. ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WAS STILL IN THE CONFIGURATION OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
TROUGH IN THE EAST. A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DESCENDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. A VORT MAX WAS ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WAS
CLEARLY PRONOUNCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE MIDWEST AND ITS CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TODAY...AND THEN ITS EASTWARD WANDERING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO FORCE THE CURRENT
HEAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EASTWARD AND ERODE THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD FINALLY END THE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
AREA FOR A WHILE NOW.

THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON ALL MAJOR FEATURES. THEY HANDLE THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES PRETTY SIMILARLY TO ONE ANOTHER. THE
GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER IN ITS BREAKING DOWN OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH...BUT GIVEN HOW STRONG THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IS AND IN TURN
THE DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH...THINK THAT A QUICKER SOLUTION MAY
BE IN ORDER. THE MOS NUMBERS WERE PRETTY SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER...AND USED A BLEND WITH DETAILS AS NOTED BELOW.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY
DESCENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. A VORT MAX ON ITS
WESTERN EDGE WILL HELP TO CUT IT OFF AND LIKELY TO HELP FORCE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING TODAY.
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
H85 TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR +2C IN EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL
CREATE FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CAPE. LI VALUES WILL BE STRONGLY NEGATIVE FROM 18Z
ONWARD TODAY. SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM A GOOD BET.
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH FREEZING LEVEL BELOW 6000 FEET AND
H7-H5 LAPSE RATED IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
THERE IS A SEE TEXT ON SWODY ONE FOR MENTION OF HAIL. WILL MENTION
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN HWO FOR FAR EASTERN INDIANA. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...AND H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +3 AND +5 TODAY
WILL YIELD GENERALLY MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SHOWER AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING. SHUT POPS OFF AFTER 03Z TO SHOW THIS.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING AND ENOUGH TO LET TEMPS INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S...CONSISTENT WITH BLENDED MOS.

FRIDAY...A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED. WE REMAIN UNDER A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES LOOK LIKELY ALONG
WITH H85 TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +5 TO +7 SO ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL
DAY AS THOSE VALUES WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN AND CLEAR
SKIES OUT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S AS THERE SHOULD BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...THE EASTERN TROUGH STARTS TO BEAR AN ASSAULT FROM THE
WESTERN RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. IT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE IN THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW IS STILL WELL WEST...SO
HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MIDDLE 70S WITH H85 TEMPS ABOVE +10C.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...WARM FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN KANSAS. EXPECTING A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT.
SWODY3 HIGHLIGHTS SLIGHT RISK AND IT LOOKS REASONABLE NOW. WILL
MENTION IN HWO.

EXTENDED...LIKELY ISSUES WITH THE WARM FRONT AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EAST. GFS A BIT SLOWER THAN ECMWF BREAKING IT
DOWN...AND HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JEH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-190930-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1148 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2006 /1248 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTH TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS DO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     HAIL             NOBLESVILLE             40.06N 86.03W
05/18/2006  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           IN   AMATEUR RADIO

1250 PM     HAIL             2 E CARMEL              39.97N 86.07W
05/18/2006  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            111TH AND ALLISONVILLE

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHERIDAN                40.13N 86.22W
05/18/2006                   HAMILTON           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            24 INCH DIAMETER TREE

0110 PM     HAIL             6 NE LAWRENCE           39.93N 85.91W
05/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       HANCOCK            IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
133 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     HAIL             13 WSW PLAINFIELD       39.63N 86.61W
05/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       HENDRICKS          IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            CR 450W AND US 30

0125 PM     HAIL             2 W DANVILLE            39.76N 86.56W
05/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       HENDRICKS          IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0110 PM     TSTM WND GST     NOBLESVILLE             40.06N 86.03W
05/18/2006  E34 MPH          HAMILTON           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            30 FOOT TREE DOWN

0120 PM     HAIL             7 SE ANDERSON           40.02N 85.59W
05/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0129 PM     HAIL             MOORESVILLE             39.62N 86.37W
05/18/2006  E1.00 INCH       MORGAN             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SR 144 AND SR 67

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
134 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     HAIL             1 N FRANKLIN            39.51N 86.06W
05/18/2006  E0.25 INCH       JOHNSON            IN   PUBLIC

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
147 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NE SHELBYVILLE        39.58N 85.70W
05/18/2006  E50 MPH          SHELBY             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RADIO TOWER AND TREES DOWN, DAMAGE TO METAL BARN DOOR

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINBURGH               39.35N 85.97W
05/18/2006                   JOHNSON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE ON CAR, PERSON INJURED

&&

SMITH