Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 181635 RRA
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

INC011-107-181715-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-060518T1715Z/
BOONE-MONTGOMERY-
1235 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BOONE AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 1232 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LADOGA AROUND 1245 PM EDT...
  NEW ROSS AROUND 1250 PM EDT...
  ADVANCE AROUND 1255 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4016 8673 3998 8712 3989 8706 3988 8670
      3993 8671 3993 8655

$$

CO

000 
WWUS53 KIND 181655
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

INC011-107-181705-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-060518T1715Z/
BOONE-MONTGOMERY-
1255 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BOONE AND
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4016 8673 3998 8712 3989 8706 3988 8670
      3993 8671 3993 8655

$$

CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
730 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z-12Z TAFS
FOG AT KLAF IS QUITE SHALLOW AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY NEXT FEW
HOURS ONCE DAYTIME HEATING GETS STARTED.  RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE OCCURRING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW WILL GO VCSH MAINLY AT KLAF
AND KIND SITES.

MODELS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL MOVE TO LAKE ERIE BY 00Z AND TO WESTERN NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
BUILDS OUR WAY.  WILL MENTION SOME FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT KLAF AS
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.  AT KLAF AND KBMG SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM MOVES INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT IS JUST CLEARING
THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS ANCHORED TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR GEORGIAN BAY. ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WAS STILL IN THE CONFIGURATION OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
TROUGH IN THE EAST. A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DESCENDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. A VORT MAX WAS ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WAS
CLEARLY PRONOUNCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE MIDWEST AND ITS CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TODAY...AND THEN ITS EASTWARD WANDERING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO FORCE THE CURRENT
HEAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EASTWARD AND ERODE THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD FINALLY END THE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
AREA FOR A WHILE NOW.

THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON ALL MAJOR FEATURES. THEY HANDLE THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES PRETTY SIMILARLY TO ONE ANOTHER. THE
GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER IN ITS BREAKING DOWN OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH...BUT GIVEN HOW STRONG THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IS AND IN TURN
THE DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH...THINK THAT A QUICKER SOLUTION MAY
BE IN ORDER. THE MOS NUMBERS WERE PRETTY SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER...AND USED A BLEND WITH DETAILS AS NOTED BELOW.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY
DESCENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. A VORT MAX ON ITS
WESTERN EDGE WILL HELP TO CUT IT OFF AND LIKELY TO HELP FORCE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING TODAY.
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
H85 TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR +2C IN EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL
CREATE FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CAPE. LI VALUES WILL BE STRONGLY NEGATIVE FROM 18Z
ONWARD TODAY. SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM A GOOD BET.
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH FREEZING LEVEL BELOW 6000 FEET AND
H7-H5 LAPSE RATED IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
THERE IS A SEE TEXT ON SWODY ONE FOR MENTION OF HAIL. WILL MENTION
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN HWO FOR FAR EASTERN INDIANA. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...AND H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +3 AND +5 TODAY
WILL YIELD GENERALLY MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...SHOWER AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING. SHUT POPS OFF AFTER 03Z TO SHOW THIS.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING AND ENOUGH TO LET TEMPS INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S...CONSISTENT WITH BLENDED MOS.

FRIDAY...A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED. WE REMAIN UNDER A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES LOOK LIKELY ALONG
WITH H85 TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +5 TO +7 SO ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL
DAY AS THOSE VALUES WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN AND CLEAR
SKIES OUT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S AS THERE SHOULD BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...THE EASTERN TROUGH STARTS TO BEAR AN ASSAULT FROM THE
WESTERN RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. IT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE IN THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW IS STILL WELL WEST...SO
HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MIDDLE 70S WITH H85 TEMPS ABOVE +10C.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...WARM FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN KANSAS. EXPECTING A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT.
SWODY3 HIGHLIGHTS SLIGHT RISK AND IT LOOKS REASONABLE NOW. WILL
MENTION IN HWO.

EXTENDED...LIKELY ISSUES WITH THE WARM FRONT AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EAST. GFS A BIT SLOWER THAN ECMWF BREAKING IT
DOWN...AND HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JEH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1128 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-190930-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1028 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2006 /1128 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTH TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS DO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)