Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 161957
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
357 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

INC107-157-162015-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-060416T2015Z/
MONTGOMERY-TIPPECANOE-
357 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND EASTERN TIPPECANOE COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LINDEN...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF
LAFAYETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAFAYETTE AROUND 405 PM EDT...
  CLARKS HILL AROUND 410 PM EDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR INDIANA.

LAT...LON 4037 8693 4012 8696 4011 8673 4021 8671
      4057 8671 4053 8688

$$

PUMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
219 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LOW WERE LOCATED ACROSS IA AT 18Z.
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL IN...NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS. PREVIOUS ELEVATED CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED...BUT
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED STORMS DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS ILLINOIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A BLEND.

WARM FRONT MAY LIFT A LITTLE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS SOUTWESTERN FORECAST AREA /FA/
DO NOT SEE FRONT GOING MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THIS WARM FRONT WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. WELL NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ELEVATED. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A CONCERN HERE
AS WELL WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE FRONT. WILL
HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS/ZFP. SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SURFACE BASED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO
BECOME MORE PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING...TORNADO THREAT INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FA AND
NEAR THE WARM FRONT. SPC HAS PUT SOUTHWESTERN FA IN MODERATE RISK
WHICH LOOKS GOOD. FOR ENTIRE FA WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN
GRIDS/ZFP. WILL HIT POPS HARD AS MOST OF FA SHOULD GET MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR
AND LOOKS GOOD WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT
AFTER SURFACE LOW PASSES.

ON MONDAY DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SCOUR
OUT THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW SUNSHINE. COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
THOUGH AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE 60S. MOS GUIDANCE RELFECTS THIS AND LOOKS GOOD.

DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO IA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
FRONT WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
THE FA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS GRIDS
REFLECTED THIS AND LOOK GOOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

CS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
558 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-171000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
458 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006 /558 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...
HEAVY RAINFALL

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:
THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE LATER HALF OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTAGE 70 THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION:
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPORARILY END THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DAY TIME
HEATING WILL PRODUCE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA WILL TRACK TO JUST NORTH OF SAINT
LOUIS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS IS
RIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LAND FLOODING MAY RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE WHITE...EAST FORK OF THE WHITE RIVER AND THE WABASH RIVER
BECAUSE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER NONE OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

JH