Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

.AVIATION...MAIN AREA OF SHWRS HV PUSHED OFF TO THE E OF THE TAF
SITES...WITH ISOL CONVECTION ALONG THE EDGE OF DRY SLOT IN ERN IL.
THESE MAY MOV THRU THE AREA LTR THIS MORN...BUT ATTM COVERAGE TOO
LOW TO PUT IN TAFS. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR DVLPMNT OF CIGS 020-050
UNDER THE DRY SLOT AS WARM FNT STILL SW OF THE AREA...BUT HAVEN/T
SEEN ANY INDICATIONS OF THIS YET...SO WL KEEP ANY CIGS AOA 050 FOR
NOW. APPEARS BEST CHC FOR ORGANZIED CONVECTION WL BE IN THE 21Z-01Z
TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH CB/S MAY DVLP AS EARLY AS 19Z WHEN CONVECTIVE
TEMPS COME CLOSE TO BEING REACHED. BRIEF IFR CONDS PROBABLE IN THE
HEAVIER STORMS. DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDER THREAT OUT OF LAF FOR NOW AS
INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR ORGANIZED ACTVTY.
GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH OVR NRN IND BY EARLY AFT TO WARRENT
SOME 20-25KT GUSTS FM 100-120 HEADINGS AT LAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WITH A FEW FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA.  THERE IS A DRY SLOT TO OUR WEST AND MODELS TEMPORARILY
WEAKEN 850 MB JET TO WEST SO THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY UNTIL EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO JUST
SOUTH OF CINCINNATI. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AS THEY MOVE SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OHIO TO JUST NORTH OF SAINT LOUIS BY 00Z
AND ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL CAPES ARE UP TO 3500 J/KG FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.  THERE
MIGHT BE ENOUGH DRIER AIR OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS TO LIMIT
SEVERE THREAT THERE. OTHERWISE SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

MODELS INCREASE 850 MB JET JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP IN RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY.  HPC INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TONIGHT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH A FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN OUR NORTHEAST TO AROUND
80 SOUTH.  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TONIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL NOT REACH THESE AREAS
UNTIL MORNING. ALSO CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP SOME TONIGHT.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
558 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-171000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
458 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006 /558 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...
HEAVY RAINFALL

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:
THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE LATER HALF OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTAGE 70 THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION:
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPORARILY END THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DAY TIME
HEATING WILL PRODUCE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA WILL TRACK TO JUST NORTH OF SAINT
LOUIS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS IS
RIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW LAND FLOODING MAY RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE WHITE...EAST FORK OF THE WHITE RIVER AND THE WABASH RIVER
BECAUSE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER NONE OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

JH