Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WEAK TSRA COMPLEX FALLING
APART OVR EAST CENTRAL IL AND PUSHING SE. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SHOWS CIN OVER THE AREA...HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT.
FURTHERMORE CI BLOWOFF FROM THE TSRA HINDERING SFC TEMP RISES AND
DESTABILIZATION. SFC DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S AND MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES WAS FOUND FM THE GRT LKS TO KS
AND HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE GULF COAST LEAVING A W-SW FLOW ACRS
OUR AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE POPS AND TIMING.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WL USE A BLEND. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...NOT ALL ELEMENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SVR WX. LITTLE
AVAILABLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EACH DAY
CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH GOOD
CAPES. NAM IS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AND MAY BE OVERPLAYING IT A BIT.
GFS SEEMS A BIT UNDERDONE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TODAY
AND SATURDAY. MAIN TRIGGERS WL HAVE TO BE DAYTIME HEATING AND SFC
CONVERGENCE. H10-H8 LAYER Q VECTORS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE ON
SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO SET UP ACRS
CENTRAL INDIANA. HENCE WITH THIS AFTERNOON/S CAP SLOWLY ERODING AND
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FAVORABLE SITUATION WL KEEP CHC MENTION
FOR POPS TONIGHT AND AGAIN CHC POPS MAINLY ON SAT AFTERNOON.

JET BEGINS TO COME INTO PLAY ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW
OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD INDIANA. AT THAT TIME
FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE WL BE A BETTER SET
UP FOR STRONGER...MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. WL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND PERSISTENCE MAV
LOWS SEEM A BIT TOO COLD...SO WL LEAN A BIT WARMER HERE. WL ALSO
LEAN A BIT WARMER ON HIGHS...TOWARD PERSISTENCE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SVR TSTM WATCH WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA UNTIL 20Z.

&&

PUMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-151930-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
217 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006 /317 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS POSSIBLE:

LARGE HAIL
DAMAGING WINDS
LIGHTNING

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION:

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD AND VERY STRONG STORMS WILL BE
GREATER ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. LIGHTNING IS A HAZARD WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

PUMA