Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...KIND RADAR CONTS TO SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRAS
ACROSS FA AT 07Z. DPS ARE INCREASING ACROSS FA WITH RAIN FALLING.
TSRA COMPLEX CONTS TO MV SE ACROSS FA.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
H7/H85 LOW 18Z SAT. GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND QUICKER AS OPPOSED
TO THE NAM. NAM IS ALSO DIVING SYSTEM SOUTH WHILE GFS CONTS MORE
EASTERLY. SFC SYSTEM APPEARS TO FOLLOW SUIT UNTIL 12Z MON WHEN BOTH
GFS AND NAM ALIGN A BIT BETTER. NAM AND UKMET VERY SIMILAR. ONE NOTE
OF INTEREST IN THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING ACTUAL DEWPOINTS VERY
WELL. WL KEEP THIS IN MIND WHILE MAKING THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...FEEL
LEANING TOWARD NAM/UKMET WL BE BEST.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WL BE POSSIBLE SVR WX OVER THE FEW DAYS.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING AS COMPLEX PUSHES SE
ACROSS FA. EXPECT TO SEE DPS INCREASE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
CURRENT NAM TRENDS TO BE MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY THAN PRESENT
INDICATIONS. CWA REMAINS ON NORTHERN FRINGES OF RIDGE AS WARM AIR
BUBBLE MAKES LITTLE CHANGES OVR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUN EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY AND CAPE IS FORECAST TO SOAR INTO THE 3000 J/KG RANGE.
LIS ALSO INCREASE TO -7 TO -9 C ACROSS FA. WL HAVE TO MONITOR DP
INCREASES TO FIND OUT HOW ACCURATE ARE FORECAST INSTABILITY VALUES.
FOR NOW...WL CONT TO MENTION TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS FA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO OVRNGT HOURS. CDFNT FORECAST TO MV ACROSS FA TOWARD SAT
MORNING. WL CONT TO MENTION POSSIBLE TSRA OVRNGT. MET APPEARS A BIT
COOL TODAY CONSIDERING LAST FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS IN REACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK. WL GO BETWEEN COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV WITH EXPECTED
SUN TODAY. MAV A BIT COOL OVRNGT TONIGHT AS CLOUDS WL HELP TEMPS UP
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WAA. WL LEAN TOWARD WARMER MET NUMBERS.

SAT EXPECT TO SEE A BREAK IN THE TSRA ACTION AS CDFNT MVS SOUTH.
FRONT DOES SEEM TO STALL AROUND OHIO RIVER BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT OVRNGT SUN. CONSIDERING FRONTAL POSITION AND DRYING OF
MOISTURE WITH FROPA...WL LOWER POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY. COULD
STILL SEE A POP UP TSRA BUT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SRN FA DURING
THE DAY. BY NGT...AS WRMFNT LIFTS NORTH...DPS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
THE CHC FOR MORE TSRAS INCREASE. SVR WX POSSIBILITIES RETURN TO FA
DURING OVRNGT TIME FRAME SAT AND THEN AGAIN SUN. WL HAVE TO CONT TO
MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY. SUN LOOKS VERY INTERESTING FOR SVR WX.
SPC DOES KEEP CWA IN SLIGHT RISK THROUGH SUN. MET VALUES ARE
UNDERDONE SAT AS SUN WL ONCE AGAIN HELP WARM TEMPS UP. DO EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AS CDFNT MVS ACROSS FA BUT NOT MUCH COLD
AIR WITH IT. WL LEAN TOWARD WARMER MAV NUMBERS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
344 PM EDT THU APR 13 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-062>065-072-141945-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JENNINGS-
344 PM EDT THU APR 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT IS MAINLY FROM THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA
AND NORTHWARD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 1100 PM EDT. SPOTTERS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

INZ060-061-067>071-141945-
SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
244 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006 /344 PM EDT THU APR 13 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOW LAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNT CARMEL...PETERSBURG
AND HAZLETON AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 1100 PM. SPOTTERS MAY ALSO
BE NEEDED FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

PUMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 AM     TSTM WND GST     MONTEZUMA               39.79N 87.37W
04/14/2006  E50 MPH          PARKE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0304 AM     HAIL             DANA                    39.81N 87.49W
04/14/2006  E0.25 INCH       VERMILLION         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MSHARTRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
307 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N MARSHALL            39.90N 87.19W
04/14/2006  M57 MPH          PARKE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MSHARTRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     TSTM WND GST     ROSEDALE                39.62N 87.28W
04/14/2006  E50 MPH          PARKE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MSHARTRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DANA                    39.81N 87.49W
04/14/2006                   VERMILLION         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            US 36 NEAR DANA. POWER LINES DOWN

&&

MSHARTRA