Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 142336
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
636 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

ILC183-150000-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-060415T0000Z/
VERMILION-
636 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTY...

AT 631 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOOPESTON...OR ABOUT 21 MILES EAST
OF PAXTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...  
  HOOPESTON.
  ALVIN.
  BISMARCK.
  CHENEYVILLE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING...BUT STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4049 8794 4041 8795 4015 8754 4050 8753

$$

KH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
345 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS HAD
SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH RESPECT
TO THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GFS HAVING
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES THROUGH DAY 3. ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE CLOSER TO GFS...WITHOUT THE FEEDBACK. HPC WENT WITH NAM IN SHORT
TERM AND BLEND FROM DAY 3 ON. WILL TRY TO BLEND CANADIAN AND NAM
FOR DETAILS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF C IL THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
REFORMED TO OUR NORTH AFTER LAST NIGHTS SEVERE STORMS. LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE RECENT STORMS ARE TOUGH TO DISTINGUISH
IN RADAR IMAGES AT THE MOMENT...BUT ARE LIKELY STILL PRESENT.
INSTABILITY PARAMS ARE ALL STRONGER THAN LAST EVENING...AND SPC HAS
UPGRADED THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF OUR CWA INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY.
DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR CWA...SO SURFACED
BASED STORMS MORE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE HAIL AND WIND...WITH
ISOLATED TORS POSSIBLE. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS BECOMING BETTER IN OUR
SE AREA WHERE THE WINDS ARE BACKING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...SO
ROTATING SUPERCELLS MORE LIKELY THERE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS AND
SEVERE WORDING IN THE MOD RISK AREA...AND CHC POPS WITH SVR WORDING
IN ALL BUT THE FAR N ZONES...OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...LIFTING NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON IN SC IL...WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING IN IOWA CLOSER TO THE
H5 SHORTWAVE. THAT STORM SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT DURING THE EVENING...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. SPC HAS US
IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2. THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE
PROJECTED INSTABILITY PARAMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE TIME WHEN UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS FINALLY
PUSH ACROSS IL. MORE STORMS SHOULD FIRE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
AFTER 6 PM. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS...BUT
SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS IL ON TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE
AGAIN...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG...BUT THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE ENOUGH KICK FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER DAYS ARE
ON TAP FOR WED AND THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHIMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1130 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-151100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1130 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM I-55 EAST...WITH A SLIGHT RISK WEST OF I-55.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IOWA
WILL COLLIDE WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH A TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EASTER
WEEKEND...BRINGING TWO MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
FOR LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH DAYS...THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HUETTL/AUTEN