Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 140655
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
155 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

ILC183-140705-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-060414T0700Z/
VERMILION-
155 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR VERMILION COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 151 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM. REMAIN 
ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SEVERE WEATHER.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4039 8795 3991 8794 3990 8754 4036 8754

$$

AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
922 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZFP TO INCREASE POP TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING AS
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER IOWA HAS FORMED AS EXPECTED... AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO AN MCS AS IT RACES ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  KEPT THE SMALL CHANCES GOING FARTHER
SOUTH IN CASE SOME CELLS TEND TO BACKBUILD SOUTHWARD... ESPECIALLY
LATER TONIGHT AS LLJ BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE CONTINUED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR... THOUGH THIS MAY IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA.  LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ACTUALLY ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY ON AS STORMS MOVE INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 242 PM CDT/ ...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SPC HAS
US IN SLIGHT RISK FOR ALL THREE. 12Z GFS SPED THINGS UP IN THE
SHORT TERM VS THE 06Z RUN. NAM A LITTLE TOO FAR N THAN THE
CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS. 06Z GFS WAS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO THE 12Z
CANADIAN GLOBAL...AND NAVY NOGAPS. LEANED TWRD CANADIAN...WITH 06Z
GFS DETAILS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY IN FAVOR OF
THE NEXT SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER PLAINS. MOISTURE
RETURN HAS BEGUN IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS MO AND IA. LLJ IN THAT
AREA HAS INCREASED TO 35 KTS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH 45 KTS
THIS EVENING. THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE TIED TO AN
ELEVATED THERMAL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS N IL. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL AID IN SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. SINCE WE THE STORMS OVER OUR AREA MAY BE ELEVATED DUE
TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AT THE ONSET...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MAINLY
TIED TO LARGE HAIL TONIGHT. ONCE THE MAIN STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS
OVER N IA...IT SHOULD PROGRESS E-SE ALONG THE THICKNESS
LINES...AND CLIP OUR N CWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE N OF THE I-74
CORRIDOR. I DID EXTEND THE CHC POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE
RAIN/NO RAIN LINE.

ON FRIDAY...THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS N IL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DESTABILIZATION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW...THE H5 SHORTWAVE IS NOT
LOOKING TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR THE FRI EVENING EVENT...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR CONV DEVELOPMENT IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY TO SET UP IN OUR AREA FROM
TONIGHTS STORMS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE LONG WAVE H5 TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS...BRINGING A SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH IT. THE MOST
ACTIVE PART OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE INTO C ILLINOIS DURING
SATURDAY EVENING...AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS JUST N OF OUR CWA. A
50 KT LLJ WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SHEAR PARAMS INDICATE
MORE LINEAR CONVECTION AND SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...I KEPT
THE 30 POPS ALL DAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE ACTION...UNTIL A POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS FROM THE N PLAINS ACROSS ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRY SLOT SHOULD CUT OFF MOST PRECIP FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD POOL SHOULD
PROVIDE STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES FOR SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HARDIMAN/SHIMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CDT THU APR 13 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-141100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1040 AM CDT THU APR 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TODAY. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THE STORMS MAY IMPACT
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
I-74 NORTH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AFTER 8 PM
AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING ANOTHER
THREAT OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMH/BAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1221 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             ROME                    40.88N 89.51W
04/14/2006  M1.00 INCH       PEORIA             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL DURATION 10 MINUTES

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1222 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HAIL             CHILLICOTHE             40.92N 89.50W
04/14/2006  M2.00 INCH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1223 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 AM     HAIL             2 W METAMORA            40.79N 89.40W
04/14/2006  M0.75 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1232 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 E LINCOLN             40.15N 89.35W
04/14/2006  M67 MPH          LOGAN              IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED WIND GUST ON RSOIS UPPER AIR SURFACE EQUIPMENT
            AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1240 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 AM     HAIL             3 W CLINTON             40.15N 89.02W
04/14/2006  M0.75 INCH       DE WITT            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1246 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 AM     HAIL             WAPELLA                 40.22N 88.96W
04/14/2006  M1.75 INCH       DE WITT            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED ALONG A LINE FROM WAPELLA...TO
            HALLSVILLE...TO KENNEY

1238 AM     HAIL             HALLSVILLE              40.15N 89.10W
04/14/2006  M1.75 INCH       DE WITT            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED ALONG A LINE FROM WAPELLA...TO
            HALLSVILLE...TO KENNEY

1238 AM     HAIL             KENNEY                  40.10N 89.09W
04/14/2006  M1.75 INCH       DE WITT            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED ALONG A LINE FROM WAPELLA...TO
            HALLSVILLE...TO KENNEY

&&

KELLY