Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
145 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON REVOLVES CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONSTRICTS WESTWARD AND
RELIEF MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER
AIR.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
CURRENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NORTH OF AREA SHOULD GAIN MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COMPLEX WILL BE BATTLING CAP SO AT THIS POINT ONLY
ISOLATED WIND REPORTS ARE EXPECTED.

HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE 12Z MODELS
AND WILL LIKELY PUSH A DECENT BOUNDARY INTO THE CWA.  THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE
TONIGHT.  INITIAL MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THE BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THIS BOUNDARY I WOULD
ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MAIN AXIS BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW IT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE
THE FRONT/BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE BOUNDARY SAG BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE PRECIP
SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE NAM HAS BEEN BRINGING IT INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.  AM LEANING TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PROGGED CAP...BUT IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT FORCED BY THESE FIRST TWO MCS
EXPECTED TODAY AND AND LATE TONIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEW POINT POOLING ON
THURSDAY AND DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY...THE
HEAT INDICES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH 105 OR HIGHER IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. WILL RETAIN ADVISORY AS CURRENTLY POSTED.

NORTHEAST WINDS SET UP ON FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO FALL TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MIDDLE TO LATE JULY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE THAN IN THE SHORT-TERM ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ONLY ISOLATED. BIGGEST DEVIANT IN THIS EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE THE
CANADIAN WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY AND BRINGS MUCH OF THE AREA
PRECIP.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM RUSHVILLE...SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

BARKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-041-201200-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-MASON-
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANGE IN THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL START TO TAKE PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PLOWS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. UNTIL
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE
FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER REMAIN TO OUR NORTH IN THE MORNING.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
INTERACTS WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF THURSDAY...MAINLY AFTER 300 AM ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
74.

ILZ040-047>052-201200-
SCHUYLER-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 100 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 74 OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THE MAIN
FACTOR WHICH MAY KEEP ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST WILL BE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ILZ042>046-053>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-201200-
LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 105 DEGREES.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.
THE MAIN FACTOR WHICH MAY KEEP ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL BE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
345 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W SPARLAND            41.03N 89.48W
07/19/2006                   MARSHALL           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 17 WEST OF SPARLAND.

&&

HARDIMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
349 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHILLICOTHE             40.92N 89.50W
07/19/2006  M60 MPH          PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOGAN ESDA AT HAZARDOUS MATERIAL EXERCISE IN RURAL PEORIA
            COUNTY NEAR CHILICOTHE AREA MADE THIS REPORT.

&&

HARDIMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
352 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     HAIL             WEST PEORIA             40.70N 89.63W
07/19/2006  M0.75 INCH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HARDIMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
400 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TORNADO          3 E CANTON              40.56N 89.98W
07/19/2006                   FULTON             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HARDIMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
402 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             PEORIA                  40.74N 89.61W
07/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL REPORTED BY CITY ESDA AT BRADLEY UNIVERSITY AND
            ESTIMATED 50 MPH WITH 3-4 INCH LIMBS BLOWN DOWN. FROM
            PEORIA CITY ESDA.

&&

HARDIMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
418 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE SMITHFIELD         40.49N 90.27W
07/19/2006  E60 MPH          FULTON             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED FROM WFO DVN.

&&

HARDIMAN