Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 191957
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

ILC095-175-192015-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-060719T2015Z/
KNOX-STARK-
257 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR STARK AND NORTHERN KNOX COUNTIES...

AT 255 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF BRADFORD TO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALESBURG...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KEWANEE TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALESBURG...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  WYOMING.
  CASTLETON.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4122 8967 4103 9043 4089 9044 4101 8964

$$

CHURCHILL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 192018
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

ILC095-175-192028-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-060719T2015Z/
KNOX-STARK-
318 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR STARK AND NORTHERN KNOX
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 315 PM CDT...

AT 317 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. REMAIN 
ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 4122 8967 4103 9043 4089 9044 4101 8964

$$

CHURCHILL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
145 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON REVOLVES CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONSTRICTS WESTWARD AND
RELIEF MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER
AIR.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
CURRENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NORTH OF AREA SHOULD GAIN MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COMPLEX WILL BE BATTLING CAP SO AT THIS POINT ONLY
ISOLATED WIND REPORTS ARE EXPECTED.

HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE 12Z MODELS
AND WILL LIKELY PUSH A DECENT BOUNDARY INTO THE CWA.  THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE
TONIGHT.  INITIAL MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THE BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THIS BOUNDARY I WOULD
ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MAIN AXIS BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW IT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE
THE FRONT/BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE BOUNDARY SAG BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE PRECIP
SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE NAM HAS BEEN BRINGING IT INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.  AM LEANING TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PROGGED CAP...BUT IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT FORCED BY THESE FIRST TWO MCS
EXPECTED TODAY AND AND LATE TONIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEW POINT POOLING ON
THURSDAY AND DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY...THE
HEAT INDICES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH 105 OR HIGHER IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. WILL RETAIN ADVISORY AS CURRENTLY POSTED.

NORTHEAST WINDS SET UP ON FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO FALL TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MIDDLE TO LATE JULY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE THAN IN THE SHORT-TERM ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ONLY ISOLATED. BIGGEST DEVIANT IN THIS EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE THE
CANADIAN WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY AND BRINGS MUCH OF THE AREA
PRECIP.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM RUSHVILLE...SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

BARKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-041-201200-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-MASON-
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANGE IN THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL START TO TAKE PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PLOWS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. UNTIL
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE
FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER REMAIN TO OUR NORTH IN THE MORNING.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
INTERACTS WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF THURSDAY...MAINLY AFTER 300 AM ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
74.

ILZ040-047>052-201200-
SCHUYLER-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 100 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 74 OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THE MAIN
FACTOR WHICH MAY KEEP ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST WILL BE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ILZ042>046-053>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-201200-
LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 105 DEGREES.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.
THE MAIN FACTOR WHICH MAY KEEP ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL BE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HJS