Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
258 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ISSUE TODAY IS THE VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAGGING ITS WAY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE STATE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT THE AREA AND DRAG THE
CHANCES OF PCPN WITH IT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE WEAK FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT IN THE SURFACE MSAS
DATA...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEN ON THE BOUNDARY.
MOIST AIRMASS THE AREA WITH PWS OF 1.7 IS ENOUGH TO ALREADY TRIGGER
SCATTERED TSTMS IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY. MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE CHANNEL SATELLITE DATA...PROFILER
WINDS...AND MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SHOULD MOVE NE THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THESE WAVES PLUS THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPWARD SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS. INCREASED POPS A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO BUILD INTO MS
VALLEY AND SHIFT THE FLOW TO NORTHWEST AND THE BEGINNING OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEEDNESDAY...
NW FLOW REMAINS THE DOMAINATE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BEGINNING BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
WARM CONDITIONS UP A LITTLE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY. WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN
BRINGING COOLER AIR...BUT MAIN PCPN SHOULD BE NE OF REGION. WILL
KEEP IT DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

GOETSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-011100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL COMBINE
WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIR TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN A BAND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM BLOOMINGTON TO HAVANA... AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR... INCLUDING CITIES AND TOWNS ALONG THE
I-72 CORRIDOR. SKIES HAVE SHOWN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITHIN THIS
BAND... WHICH IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS BEEN POOLING IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED... AND RATHER LOCALIZED...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
BRING ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING.

HARDIMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
241 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     TORNADO          3 S PESOTUM             39.87N 88.27W
05/31/2006                   DOUGLAS            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO SIGHTED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 57 NEAR MILE
            MARKER 217 BY STATE POLICE.

0236 PM     TORNADO          SADORUS                 39.97N 88.35W
05/31/2006                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO SIGHTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

GOETSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
309 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE SADORUS           39.94N 88.33W
05/31/2006                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 FOOT DIAMETER TREES BLOWN DOWN. WITNESSED BY A SHERIFF
            DEPUTY. FROM COUNTY ESDA

&&

GOETSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
430 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
05/31/2006                   SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UP TO 1.5 FEET OF WATER COVERING SEVERAL ROADS IN THE
            TARA HILLS SUBDIVISION OF SPRINGFIELD. MEASURED RAINFALL
            OF 3.5 INCHES REPORTED AT 405 PM.

&&

KELLY