Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 312014
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

ILC167-312023-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-060531T2015Z/
SANGAMON-
313 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SANGAMON COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 315 PM CDT...

AT 313 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED. 
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 315 PM.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3982 8991 3959 8986 3961 8954 3984 8956

$$

KH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.UPDATE...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SNAKED NE/SW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.  NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE... UNTIL YOU GET UP INTO MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.
ACROSS OUR AREA... THIS BOUNDARY IS DEFINED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A
WIND SHIFT LINE... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD OF IT.

MEANWHILE... ANOTHER REMNANT MCV/MESOLOW IS ALONG THE FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI... THIS FEATURE IS NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT
MAY DRIFT WESTWARD IN TIME... WHILE THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS A PROBLEM ONCE AGAIN... AND IT IS BEGINNING TO
LOOK A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY WHEN CONVECTION DID NOT FIRE UNTIL AFTER 3
PM.  MODIFIED 12Z ILX SOUNDING... AS WELL RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY... ON THE ORDER
OF 1200 J/KG.  RUC HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...
WHICH LENDS IT SOME CREDENCE.  IT SEEMS TO HAVE ANALYSED THE
BOUNDARY WELL... AND CAUGHT ON TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA-E
POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOST
CLEARING IS ALSO ACROSS THIS AREA... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
PRETTY QUICKLY.

BASED ON THESE TRENDS... WILL RE-ADJUST POPS TO FOCUS THEM
ALONG/AHEAD OF OUR BOUNDARY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
HINTS AT A FEW CU LINES FINALLY DEVELOPING IN OUR CLEARING AREA
WHERE THE MOISTURE IS POOLED UP.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE KEPT ROUGHLY THE SAME... JUST INCREASING A FEW
DEGREES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CONSIDERING THE PARTIAL CLEARING.

UPDATED ZFP WILL BE OUT IN JUST A BIT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 230AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPS...AS COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

06Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.  AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVIDENT FROM NEAR CHICAGO
SOUTHWESTWARD TO COLUMBIA MISSOURI.  ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HOWEVER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO
GET FLATTENED SOMEWHAT...AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES TRACK E/NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FRONT PROGGED TO SLOWLY DROP INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER
TODAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE GREATER TODAY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST TWO
DAYS.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE KILX CWA...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE FAR E AND SE...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BEST FOCUSING
MECHANISMS.  WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES.  00Z NUMERIC
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL...SO WILL GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

FRONT CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT...REACHING
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY 12Z THU.  PRECIP ACROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS HAS
BEEN LARGELY DIURNAL FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  WILL THEREFORE LOWER POPS TO 40 ACROSS THE
BOARD TONIGHT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.  WILL ADJUST
POPS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF MORNING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
IN THE EXTENDED...NW UPPER FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  BIG QUESTION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT SHORT-WAVE ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER DEVELOPING
CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS ILLINOIS.
MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FINER DETAILS...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND LOOKS DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  AFTER THAT...ECMWF/GFS BOTH
DROP A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCE A
20 POP AT THAT TIME.  NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HARDIMAN/BARNES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-011100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL COMBINE
WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIR TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN A BAND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM BLOOMINGTON TO HAVANA... AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR... INCLUDING CITIES AND TOWNS ALONG THE
I-72 CORRIDOR. SKIES HAVE SHOWN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITHIN THIS
BAND... WHICH IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS BEEN POOLING IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED... AND RATHER LOCALIZED...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
BRING ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING.

HARDIMAN