Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
453 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

.MESO UPDATE...
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE ON STORM TYPE POTENTIAL DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME GOOD ELEVATED SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING
OVER SUMNER AND COUNTIES. THESE STORMS MAY END UP PRODUCING HAIL
LARGER THAN 2 INCHES AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH. FURTHER
WEST JUST WEST OF PRATT...THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO
LOWER ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AREA APPEARS TO
BECOMING PRIMED FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STRETCHING PARAMETER
ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING
OVER THAT REGION. 0-1KT HELICITY IS AROUND 150 M2/S2 WHICH COULD
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOGENISIS ESPECIALLY IF A STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BOUNDARY.

COX

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST PROBLEMS:
1) SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
2) MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. AS OF 3 PM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OK IN GARFIELD COUNTY JUST E OF TRIPLE POINT. WITH
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING E/NE ACROSS WRN KS EXPECT STRONG COLD
FRONT TO SURGE SE ACROSS KS. AMPLE MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP()
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEPICT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT TO BE IN FORM
OF LARGE HAIL. WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED IN W-E MANNER ACROSS NRN OK
WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SRN TIER COUNTIES OF SC KS. WITH COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SURGE SE...
SE KS SHOULD EXPECT NUMEROUS STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AS BOUNDARY TO ENCOUNTER RICHER LOWER-DECK MOISTURE IN
THIS PART OF NEIGHBORHOOD. PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN 1.5-1.7 INCH
RANGE MOMENTARILY RIASED CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOOD ISSUANCE. WITH 3
HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN 2.5 TO 3.0 INCH RANGE
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ISSUANCE UNTIL BETTER FEEL ESTABLISHED WITH
RESPECT RAINFALL RATES.

TUESDAY:
WITH STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SURGE SE ACROSS KS/MO BORDER...
CHANCES FOR -SHRA TO BE GREATEST ACROSS SE KS WHERE NO DOUBT
CLOSER TO SFC-850MB WRAP-AROUND.

TUESDAY NIGHT:
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON LOW TEMPERATURES. LARGE SFC HIGH SETTLES SE
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WRN/CENTRAL KS. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO 546DM COUPELD WITH CLEARING WOULD SUPPORT MINS 35F
WITH CENTRAL KS ON COLDER SIDE OF FENCE.

WED-THU NIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER SLATED ALL AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE AREA DOMINATES WHILE DRIFTING SE TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY.

FRIDAY & FRIDAY NIGHT: (CORRECTED)
NEXT CHANCE FOR TSRA SLATED THESE PERIODS AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
SE INTO CENTRAL KS FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY POTENT
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SPRINTING SE ACROSS NRN PLAINS. SOME CONCERN
AS TO MOISTURE MAGNITUDE. AS SUCH..HAVE TAKEN CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS ASSIGNING 20-30% WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ASSIGNED TO CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASED TO 30-40% FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PRIMARILY SC & SE KS AS
COLD FRONT CONTINUES SE JAUNT ACROSS FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  50  35  65 /  70  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      40  49  34  65 /  60  30   0   0
NEWTON          43  48  35  65 /  70  40   0   0
ELDORADO        45  48  35  64 /  80  40   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  52  36  65 /  80  40   0   0
RUSSELL         37  47  33  66 /  40  30   0   0
GREAT BEND      37  49  33  66 /  40  30   0   0
SALINA          40  47  34  65 /  60  30   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  47  34  65 /  60  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  54  37  65 /  90  40   0   0
CHANUTE         51  51  37  65 /  90  50   0   0
IOLA            50  51  36  65 /  90  50   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  53  37  65 /  90  50   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
215 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
215 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM MAINLY WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 AND I-135 CORRIDOR AND MOVE EAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THE
EVENING HOURS APPROACH. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST
TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIST ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LYONS TO COTTONWOOD FALLS LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND
9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE SEVERITY OF THESE
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX/LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1131 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             4 W CANEY               37.01N 96.00W
04/24/2006  E1.25 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 AM     HAIL             CANEY                   37.01N 95.93W
04/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LFW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
454 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             10 SE WELLINGTON        37.17N 97.27W
04/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       SUMNER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
456 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             SOUTH HAVEN             37.05N 97.40W
04/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       SUMNER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
457 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             MULVANE                 37.48N 97.24W
04/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MJR